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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302170346.AA14357@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 February
Date: Tue, 16 Feb 93 20:46:29 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 047, 02/16/93
10.7 FLUX=133.7  90-AVG=138        SSN=123      BKI=0124 3220  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B5.1     FLU1=6.6E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1233 3111  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=004,008,019,042,029,014,010,004   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=01:014
 XRAY-MAX= M2.1   @ 1429UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.3   @ 0411UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1955UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0755UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1825UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 2045UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55413NT @ 1557UT   BOUTF-MIN=55390NT @ 1847UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+110NT@ 2022UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-021NT@ 0927UT  G7-AVG=+078,+031,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1850UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-006NT@ 2015UT  G6-AVG=+092,+008,+042
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,125,120;SESC:125,125,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=0105 4010 0004 4011  27DAY-AP=010,006   27DAY-KP=3223 3322 2313 2111
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.1/SF@1429UTC,S06W76(RGN7420)
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7420 (S06W84)
       produced the largest flare, an M2.1/SF at 16/1429UT. This region
       continued its slow decay accompanied by frequent surging.
       Region 7425 (N15E11) developed from a single H spot to a 10 spot
       D-group. Region 7427 (S21E44) was the source region for several
       C-flares. Two new regions were numbered: 7428 (S06E54) and
       7429 (S13E68).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7420 may produce an M-flare from
       beyond the west limb.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours. There were isolated reports of active
       conditions on a few mid and high latitude stations around
       0900-1500UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 17 feb-19 feb

                             Class M    25/25/10
                             Class X    05/05/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 feb-19 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal to slightly above
       normal over all regions.  Conditions are expected to remain the
       same for the next two to three days at least.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7420  S06W83  088  0430 EAO  13  018 BETA
7424  N10W21  026  0030 CAO  06  007 BETA
7425  N15E12  353  0110 DSO  04  019 BETA
7426  N06E35  330  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7427  S22E44  321  0060 CAO  04  006 BETA
7428  S06E54  311  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7429  S14E69  296  0110 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 FEBRUARY TO 19 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1419 1429 1442 7420  S06W76 M2.1  SF
 2007 2008 2009                          160


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


