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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302160707.AA10269@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 February
Date: Tue, 16 Feb 93 0:07:08 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 046, 02/15/93
10.7 FLUX=134.8  90-AVG=139        SSN=100      BKI=0102 0000  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=B4.9     FLU1=5.7E+05  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=1112 2111  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=004,006,004,012,004,002,003,004   DEV-AVG=004 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.1   @ 1944UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.1   @ 1046UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2045UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1250UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1805UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2130UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55412NT @ 1513UT   BOUTF-MIN=55393NT @ 1913UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+108NT@ 1906UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0319UT  G7-AVG=+080,+031,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1855UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-006NT@ 1850UT  G6-AVG=+091,+006,+041
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,125,120;SESC:130,125,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1112 2111 1114 4222  27DAY-AP=014,010   27DAY-KP=3323 3343 3223 3322
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7420 (S06W71) produced
       most of today's occasional C-class flare activity including the
       largest event: a C9/SF at 14/2312Z. The group shows continued
       gradual decay as it nears west limb. Region 7424 (N09W06)
       showed frequent small brightenings but was in decay. The other
       active regions were quiet.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       predominantly low. Region 7420 poses a slight threat for the
       production of an isolated M-class event during the next two
       to three days.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 16 feb-18 feb

                             Class M    25/25/15
                             Class X    05/05/01
                             Proton     05/05/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 feb-18 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/25/25
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal over
       all regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for
       the next 24 to 72 hours.  Good to very good propagation is
       expected over the equatorial to middle latitude paths.  High
       and polar latitude paths should observe mostly fair to good
       propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7420  S06W71  090  0610 EKO  14  034 BETA
7424  N09W06  025  0040 CSO  05  008 BETA
7425  N15E24  355  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7426  N05E46  333  0020 CRO  04  003 BETA
7427  S22E56  323  0050 HRX  04  004 ALPHA
7422  N03W86  105                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 FEBRUARY TO 18 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1330 1330 1335 7424  N10W01       SF    670


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


