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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302150512.AA06277@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 February
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 93 22:12:26 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                14 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 045, 02/14/93
10.7 FLUX=141    90-AVG=139        SSN=120      BKI=2322 1011  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B7.5     FLU1=4.5E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2311 1121  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=011,021,013,011,008,004,006,008   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=01:011
 XRAY-MAX= M2.0   @ 1258UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.7   @ 1648UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1650UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2350UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 0130UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1820UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55413NT @ 1508UT   BOUTF-MIN=55386NT @ 1903UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+107NT@ 1848UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+003NT@ 0346UT  G7-AVG=+078,+032,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1754UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-004NT@ 1951UT  G6-AVG=+089,+006,+042
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,130,125;SESC:135,130,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1112 2111 1112 2111  27DAY-AP=008,014   27DAY-KP=1222 2233 3323 3343
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.0/2B@1258UTC,S22E78(RGN7427)
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. New Region 7427 (S22E71)
       produced today's only M-class flare: an M2.0/2B at 1258Z.
       Additional C-class events occurred throughout the day: most of
       these were from Region 7420 (S06W60), which continues to be the
       largest group on the disk, and continues to show slow steady
       decay as it approaches west limb. A filament disappeared from
       the southeast quadrant sometime between 13/18Z and 14/11Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Regions 7420 and 7427 show the greatest poten-
       tial for generating an isolated M-class event.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 15 feb-17 feb

                             Class M    45/45/45
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 feb-17 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/25
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/30
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal over
       the middle and low latitudes.  High and polar latitudes had
       near-normal propagation.  Similar conditions are expected to
       persist for the next 24 to 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7417  N17W91  123  0160 DAO  03  002 BETA
7420  S06W58  090  0620 EKI  14  036 BETA
7424  N09E08  024  0060 DSO  06  013 BETA
7425  N14E36  356  0100 CSO  03  003 BETA
7426  N05E61  331  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7427  S22E71  321  0050 HSX  03  005 ALPHA
7419  N10W79  111                    PLAGE
7422  N03W73  105                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 FEBRUARY TO 17 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7411 S12   294


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1241 1258 1311 7427  S22E78 M2.0  2B        91


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
 13/1820UT           14/1757   S17E12     DSF    14


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


