From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Sun Feb 14 21:26:58 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA12893
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Sun, 14 Feb 1993 21:26:56 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA20988; Sun, 14 Feb 1993 21:26:33 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA20893; Sun, 14 Feb 1993 21:25:54 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
	id AA03845; Sun, 14 Feb 93 12:25:31 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302141925.AA03845@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 February
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 93 12:25:25 MST
X-Sequence: 584
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                13 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 044, 02/13/93
10.7 FLUX=135.0  90-AVG=139        SSN=121      BKI=3322 3212  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B6.9     FLU1=5.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3222 3222  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=022,022,019,012,028,017,009,019   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.4   @ 0531UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.7   @ 1208UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2310UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1705UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 0215UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1755UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55414NT @ 1453UT   BOUTF-MIN=55388NT @ 1840UT  BOUTF-AVG=55404NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+112NT@ 2033UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0105UT  G7-AVG=+077,+031,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1926UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-005NT@ 1938UT  G6-AVG=+087,+006,+042
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,120,115;SESC:125,120,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2234 3222 2234 3222  27DAY-AP=009,008   27DAY-KP=2333 2211 1222 2233
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7420 (S12W43) produced
       frequent C-class flares, the largest a C5/0F at 1038Z. An
       unseen C6.4 at 0531Z was likely attributable to Region 7420 as
       well. The region seems to have declined slightly in white light
       and H-alpha over the past day, but is still the most impressive
       of the 5 spotted regions now on the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Watch Region 7420 for an isolated M-class
       event at some point in the next 3 days.  An isolated X-class
       flare is also not out of the question.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be predominantly unsettled throughout the period.

            Event probabilities 14 feb-16 feb

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 feb-16 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7417  N16W78  123  0280 DSO  06  005 BETA
7419  N10W66  111  0010 BXO  09  005 BETA
7420  S06W42  087  0710 EKI  14  046 BETA
7424  N09E22  023  0070 DSO  06  014 BETA
7425  N14E48  357  0110 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7416  S06W80  125                    PLAGE
7422  N03W60  105                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 FEBRUARY TO 16 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7406 S13   307
7411 S12   294


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


