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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302130828.AA28613@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 February
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 93 1:28:42 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                12 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 043, 02/12/93
10.7 FLUX=148.6  90-AVG=139        SSN=131      BKI=4323 2212  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B6.3     FLU1=9.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3323 2222  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=042,028,018,033,016,015,006,010   DEV-AVG=021 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.9   @ 0044UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.1   @ 1919UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1950UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2240UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1825UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55414NT @ 0337UT   BOUTF-MIN=55393NT @ 2019UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+112NT@ 2130UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 1052UT  G7-AVG=+079,+031,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1917UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-005NT@ 2047UT  G6-AVG=+090,+005,+042
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,130,120;SESC:140,130,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2234 3332 2234 3322  27DAY-AP=006,009   27DAY-KP=2211 2322 2333 2211
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7420 (S06W28) produced a
       C5.9/1F that peaked at 0045Z. This region still remains the
       most dynamic region on the disk, but has shown slight decay
       over the last 24 hours.  It is still quite capable of producing
       potentially energetic activity.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate. Region 7420 remains the main focus for producing
       potential M-class activity.  A slight chance continues to exist
       for an isolated X-class flare from this region.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled through the period.

            Event probabilities 13 feb-15 feb

                             Class M    60/60/60
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 feb-15 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/35
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/50/50
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions are expected to persist for the next 72
       hours.  Daylit paths are still expected to suffer from
       occasional SWF activity due to minor solar flares, although the
       SWFs will likely be rather brief in nature unless a major flare
       developes.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7417  N16W63  121  0340 CKO  08  008 BETA
7419  N12W53  111  0020 BXO  09  009 BETA
7420  S06W28  086  0910 EKI  14  051 BETA
7424  N08E37  021  0050 CRO  06  012 BETA
7425  N14E63  355  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7416  S09W66  124                    PLAGE
7422  N03W47  105                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 FEBRUARY TO 15 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7406 S13   307
7411 S12   294


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0032 0045 0056 7420  S06W15 C5.9  1F   1800
 0734 0734 0735                          580
 1402 1402 1402                          120
 2037 2048 2107 7417  N17W57 C1.9  SF    120


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
85   S50W52 S50W90 S50W90 S27W90  145  EXT   NEG   023 10830A
87   N30W32 S02W44 N31W52 N32W42  114  ISO   POS   016 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


