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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302122122.AA24566@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 February
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 93 14:22:09 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                11 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 042, 02/11/93
10.7 FLUX=173.2  90-AVG=139        SSN=131      BKI=3333 3224  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B8.4     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=4332 3334  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=038,026,038,022,031,018,015,046   DEV-AVG=029 NT     SWF=02:008
 XRAY-MAX= M2.7   @ 1833UT    XRAY-MIN= B6.4   @ 0116UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1555UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1230UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0545UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55415NT @ 0644UT   BOUTF-MIN=55379NT @ 1916UT  BOUTF-AVG=55404NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+106NT@ 1933UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0954UT  G7-AVG=+071,+036,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1707UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-007NT@ 0600UT  G6-AVG=+083,+007,+050
 FLUXFCST=STD:165,160,150;SESC:165,160,150 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,018,010
    KFCST=3333 3333 2234 3323  27DAY-AP=012,006   27DAY-KP=3234 2323 2211 2322
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.2@1811UTC(RGN7420);**MINFLR:M2.7@1833UTC(RGN7420);
          **TENFLR:230SFU@1831UTC,DUR=3MIN
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7420 (S07W14)
       produced two M-class flares, an M1.2/1B peaked at 1811Z and a
       M2.7 peaked at 1833Z with a burst of 230SFU at 2695Mhz.
       Although the region remains an EKI group and is growing both in
       area and number of spots, the growth rate appears to be
       levelling off.  The National Solar Observatory reported strong
       Ca XV emissions on the northwest and southwest limbs today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate. Region 7420 has the best potential for producing
       M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. High latitudes did experience
       periods of active to minor storm levels during the night
       time sectors.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active.

            Event probabilities 12 feb-14 feb

                             Class M    60/60/60
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 feb-14 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/40/40
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/50/50
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Conditions are expected remain near-normal over the
       next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7417  N16W49  120  0420 DKO  08  005 BETA-GAMMA
7419  N11W38  109  0020 BXO  07  007 BETA
7420  S07W16  087  1130 EKI  13  051 BETA-GAMMA
7422  N03W34  105  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7424  N09E49  022  0040 CRO  06  005 BETA
7425  N13E76  355  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7416  S09W53  124                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 FEBRUARY TO 14 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7406 S13   307


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
NO DATA AVAILABLE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
11/ 1630              1658       S19W90   EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
85   S50W39 S50W39 S27W78 S25W73  141  EXT   NEG   027 10830A
87   N24W18 N07W35 N23W40 N30W22  118  ISO   POS   008 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


