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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302110749.AA18836@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 February
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 93 0:49:50 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                10 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 041, 02/10/93
10.7 FLUX=179.6  90-AVG=138        SSN=152      BKI=2222 3342  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B8.3     FLU1=2.9E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2333 3342  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=013,018,014,015,031,023,060,018   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=03:007
 XRAY-MAX= M2.4   @ 2007UT    XRAY-MIN= B7.4   @ 1621UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2100UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1050UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2130UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1705UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55415NT @ 0346UT   BOUTF-MIN=55360NT @ 1919UT  BOUTF-AVG=55401NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+109NT@ 1826UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0511UT  G7-AVG=+078,+034,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 1808UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-006NT@ 1915UT  G6-AVG=+088,+005,+045
 FLUXFCST=STD:175,165,160;SESC:175,165,160 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=3334 4333 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=016,012   27DAY-KP=3433 3333 3234 2323
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.0/2B@0741,S04E03(7420);**MINFLR:M1.5/1N@0839,S04E05;
          **MINFLR:M2.4/2B@2007,S04W03(7420)
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7420 (S07W00)
       continued to be active through the period. The region produced
       three M-class flares, an M1/2B peaked at 0741Z, another M1/1N
       peaked at 0839Z, and an M2.4/2B which peaked at 2007Z. All of
       these flares were fairly impulsive in nature.  This region is
       now 1270 millionths in area (which is 110 millionths larger
       than it was yesterday) and is still capable of producing
       energetic activity, including possible X-class flares.  New
       Region 7424 (N06E61) was numbered today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7420 has the greatest potential for
       producing M-class activity.  This region may yet spawn an
       isolated X-class event.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. High latitudes did experience
       periods of active to minor storm levels during the night
       time sectors.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled throughout the period. Periods
       of active conditions may be experienced at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 11 feb-13 feb

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 feb-13 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                50/40/40
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                55/50/50
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions remained below normal over the
       high and polar latitude paths.  Middle and low latitude paths
       were near-normal throughout the day, although some upper middle
       latitude paths reported minor signal degradation during the
       night-sector.  Daylit sectors may have experienced up to three
       short wave fadeouts (SWF) from minor solar flare activity.
       Frequencies up to approximately 12 MHz were affected, but were
       not badly degraded.  SWF durations were also fairly brief (less
       than about 10 minutes).  Propagation conditions are expected to
       continue improving over the next three days and should be
       near-normal over all regions by 12 February.  The threat for
       possible SWF activity will persist as the active solar region
       (Region 7420) remains a potentially volatile flaring site.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7416  S09W40  124  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7417  N17W34  118  0560 EKO  11  012 BETA-GAMMA
7418  N03W85  169  0070 CAO  04  005 BETA
7419  N11W27  111  0020 CRO  08  007 BETA
7420  S07W01  085  1270 EKI  14  052 BETA-GAMMA
7422  N03W22  106  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7424  N09E62  022  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 FEBRUARY TO 13 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0625 0626 0627                          460
 0734 0741 0746 7420  S04E03 M1.0  2B    980 130
 0835 0839 0841 7420  S04E05 M1.5  1N        49
 0914 0914 0922 7416  S12W30       SF    800
 1259 1300 1300                         1500
 2001 2007 2012 7420  S04W03 M2.4  2B    150 68
 2141 2154 2200 7419  N11W28 C1.4  SF    120
 2313 2313 2314                          510
 2343 2347 2350              C2.2        130



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
09/1517             10/1503     S00W40     DSF
09/2304             10/1049     N25W28     DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


