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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302100806.AA13815@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 February
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 93 1:06:23 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                09 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 040, 02/09/93
10.7 FLUX=185.1  90-AVG=138        SSN=188      BKI=3424 3333  BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=C1.1     FLU1=2.8E+06  FLU10=9.9E+03  PKI=3434 4333  PAI=019
  BOU-DEV=033,060,018,068,031,031,025,020   DEV-AVG=035 NT     SWF=01:002
 XRAY-MAX= M1.0   @ 0722UT    XRAY-MIN= B7.7   @ 2050UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0410UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2150UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 0045UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0635UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 0354UT   BOUTF-MIN=55383NT @ 2017UT  BOUTF-AVG=55400NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+104NT@ 2029UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 1040UT  G7-AVG=+071,+035,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1813UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-006NT@ 1816UT  G6-AVG=+081,+007,+048
 FLUXFCST=STD:185,180,175;SESC:185,180,175 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010
    KFCST=3334 4333 3334 4333  27DAY-AP=009,016   27DAY-KP=1122 3324 3433 3333
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.0/SN@0722UTC,S08E20(7420)
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the day
       was a class M1.0/SN x-ray event that peaked at 09/0722UT from
       Region 7420 (S07E13). Subflares and C-class activity dominated
       the rest of the period. Region 7420 was the largest contributor
       of this activity.  This region is still maintaining a
       respectable growth rate of about 150 millionths per day.  Over
       the last 24 hours, the region expanded by 190 millionths to
       1,160 millionths.  Region 7417 (N16W18) is continuing to decay
       and simplify.  The primary candidate for potentially strong
       energetic activity is now Region 7420, although Region 7417
       still may contribute activity.  New Region 7423 (N19W80) was
       numbered today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Regions 7420 remains the best chance for
       M-class or isolated X-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled throughout the period. High
       latitudes can expect periods of active conditions.

            Event probabilities 10 feb-12 feb

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 feb-12 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                50/45/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                55/50/20
                        Minor Storm           20/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the
       middle, high, and polar latitude paths.  Periods of almost
       complete signal absorption were reported between 12:00 UT and
       18:00 UT over North America due to strong polar geomagnetic
       storm activity.  Paths crossing the auroral zones experienced
       moderate to strong signal degradation.  Spread-F was also
       reported over these regions.  Low and equatorial paths were
       near-normal despite this activity.  Conditions began showing
       signs of improving after 18:00 UT and are continuing to improve
       at this writing.  Near-normal propagation should return to all
       regions (barring influential solar activity) by about 12
       February.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7414  N14W80  178  0070 CAO  10  004 BETA
7416  S10W25  123  0020 HRX  01  002 ALPHA
7417  N16W18  116  0610 EKO  14  030 BETA-GAMMA
7418  N04W68  166  0120 DAO  08  005 BETA
7419  N12W16  114  0020 CRO  08  007 BETA
7420  S07E13  085  1160 EKI  14  051 BETA-GAMMA
7422  N04W10  108  0020 CRO  04  007 BETA
7423  N19W79  177  0030 CAO  05  002 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 FEBRUARY TO 12 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7403 N14   358


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0213 0213 0213                          390
 0416 0422 0425 7420  S08E20 C2.6  SN   3500
 0714 0722 0727 7420  S08E20 M1.0  SN    110
 0909 0934 0937 7420  S08E20 C1.8  SN    770
 0959 1004 1009 7420  S03E16 C2.2  SF    310
 1235 1242 1250 7420  S04E18 C3.9  SF   2700 23



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


