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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302090841.AA09984@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 February
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 93 1:41:37 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                08 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 039, 02/08/93
10.7 FLUX=188.4  90-AVG=137        SSN=181      BKI=4454 3534  BAI=029
BGND-XRAY=B8.5     FLU1=2.4E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=4554 3534  PAI=034
  BOU-DEV=049,069,092,043,025,071,021,048   DEV-AVG=052 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.2   @ 0233UT    XRAY-MIN= B7.2   @ 0416UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1225UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2300UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2145UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55426NT @ 0618UT   BOUTF-MIN=55362NT @ 1703UT  BOUTF-AVG=55401NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+120NT@ 2010UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 2312UT  G7-AVG=+067,+039,+014
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 1910UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-021NT@ 0636UT  G6-AVG=+079,+005,+053
 FLUXFCST=STD:180,175,170;SESC:180,175,170 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/025,015,015
    KFCST=3345 5333 2234 4323  27DAY-AP=010,009   27DAY-KP=3332 3231 1122 3324
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7420 (S07E26), still large
       and imposing, was responsible for a majority of today's class C
       activity with a C9.2/SF flare at 07/0233UT, a C7/1B flare at
       07/1715UT and two other small class C flares. This region
       is magnetically a beta-gamma group, and is maintaining a growth
       rate of approximately 150 millionths per day.  It is now 970
       millionths in area and remains capable of producing potentially
       significant energetic activity.  The only other class C
       activity was uncorrelated. Region 7417 (N13W06) continued to
       decay slowly.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate. Regions 7420 and 7417 both have a good chance of
       M-class activity and isolated X-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
       levels. High latitude stations saw a brief period of major
       to severe storm levels at about 08/1800UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be active owing to flare effects for the next 24
       hours. The field is expected to settle down to mostly unsettled
       levels after that.

            Event probabilities 09 feb-11 feb

                             Class M    60/60/50
                             Class X    15/15/10
                             Proton     10/10/05
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 feb-11 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/35/30
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                45/40/35
                        Minor Storm           20/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal during the
       daylit hours, and below-normal during the night sectors.
       Moderate to occasionally strong signal degradation occurred
       over the high and polar latitude paths, particularly after
       12:00 UT due to geomagnetic storming.  Conditions are expected
       to gradually improve over the next 72 hours, most notably on 10
       and 11 February barring further major influential solar
       activity.  There were no reported SWFs during the day.  There
       is a strong possibility for SWF activity over the next three
       days due to minor and possibly major solar flare activity.  The
       potential for possible proton-induced PCA activity persists.
       Should a major proton flare erupt, polar path propagation could
       be significantly disrupted.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7414  N15W70  181  0090 DSO  08  006 BETA
7416  S10W12  123  0020 CRO  04  007 BETA
7417  N16W06  117  0750 EKI  13  038 BETA-GAMMA
7418  N04W55  166  0190 DAO  10  011 BETA
7419  N10W01  112  0030 CSO  10  008 BETA
7420  S07E26  085  0970 EKI  14  036 BETA-GAMMA
7422  N04E04  107  0010 BXO  03  005 BETA
7412  S14W81  192                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 FEBRUARY TO 11 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7401 S13   018
7408 N12   014
7403 N14   358


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0000 0000 0000                          420
 0220 0233 0239 7420  S07E34 C9.2  SF    250
 0841 0841 0842                          360
 1308 1308 1308                          140
 1706 1715 1720 7420  S03E26 C7.1  1B   2000 58



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


