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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302080551.AA04344@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 February
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 93 22:51:37 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 038, 02/07/93
10.7 FLUX=175.9  90-AVG=136        SSN=182      BKI=1344 2443  BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=B7.9     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2345 2344  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=006,034,056,062,010,046,045,032   DEV-AVG=036 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.5   @ 1856UT    XRAY-MIN= B6.5   @ 2131UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1130UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2250UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2245UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 2300UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55416NT @ 1500UT   BOUTF-MIN=55382NT @ 1952UT  BOUTF-AVG=55403NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+168NT@ 1751UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-014NT@ 0838UT  G7-AVG=+082,+026,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+190NT@ 1629UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-026NT@ 1742UT  G6-AVG=+093,+003,+039
 FLUXFCST=STD:175,170,170;SESC:175,170,170 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,015/015,025,015
    KFCST=3333 3333 3454 3344  27DAY-AP=018,010   27DAY-KP=1123 6433 3332 3231
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Class C flares abounded. The
       largest of the fourteen class C flares recorded was a C7/SF at
       06/2210UT in Region 7418 (N04W42). Region 7420 (S07E38) also
       contributed to the fray with a C5/SN at 06/2138UT and a C6/SN
       at 07/1857UT. This large, imposing region has shown the
       greatest growth today and now surpasses Region 7417 in spatial
       extent, at 820 millionths in an EKI optical configuration.
       This region has maintained a growth rate of approximately 150
       millionths per day since 05 February. Region 7422 (N04E16) was
       assigned today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7417 (N16E07), a slowly decaying but
       still impressive group, and Region 7420 have the greatest class
       M flare potential. Both also have a fair chance of producing
       an isolated class X flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 08 feb-10 feb

                             Class M    60/60/60
                             Class X    15/15/15
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 feb-10 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/40/40
                        Minor Storm           15/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/40/40
                        Minor Storm           25/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the middle
       and low latitude paths.  High and polar latitude paths were
       near-normal except during the local night sectors where
       below-normal propagation occasionally dominated due to enhanced
       periods of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  There were no
       observed SWFs over daylit paths today, although a strong threat
       exists for periods of SWF activity over the next 72 hours due
       to the active solar regions presently on the disk.  There is a
       chance a disturbance may arrive sometime later this UT day (08
       February) from the major flare of 06 February and/or from a
       recent filament disappearance, although confidence in the
       arrival of the flare-induced disturbance is not particularly
       high.  Fair to poor propagation is expected over the high and
       polar latitudes with isolated periods of very poor propagation
       possible over night-sector paths.  Middle latitudes should see
       generally good propagation, with periods of fair propagation
       possible over the night-sector paths.  Low latitudes are
       expected to observe generally good propagation.  MUFs are
       becoming increasingly enhanced over the daylit paths due to
       enhanced ionizing solar radiation from the regions presently
       visible on the Sun.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7414  N15W55  179  0050 DSO  06  005 BETA
7416  S09E01  123  0030 CSO  04  005 BETA
7417  N16E07  117  0790 EKI  13  043 BETA
7418  N04W42  166  0250 DAO  10  015 BETA
7419  N11E13  111  0050 CSO  09  007 BETA
7420  S07E38  086  0820 EKI  13  035 BETA
7422  N04E16  108  0000 AXX  00  002 ALPHA
7412  S14W68  192                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 FEBRUARY TO 10 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7403 N14   358
7401 S13   018
7408 N12   014


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

NO DATA AVAILABLE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
85   S40E08 S40E08 S10W32 S08W28  153  EXT   NEG   021 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


