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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302072035.AA02204@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 February
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 93 13:35:27 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                06 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 037, 02/06/93
10.7 FLUX=183.8  90-AVG=136        SSN=190      BKI=1111 1101  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B8.1     FLU1=1.4E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=1211 1122  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=006,008,005,006,009,006,004,006   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=02:058
 XRAY-MAX= M9.6   @ 1824UT    XRAY-MIN= B6.0   @ 0723UT   XRAY-AVG= C3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2020UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2310UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1555UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55415NT @ 1500UT   BOUTF-MIN=55383NT @ 1831UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+127NT@ 2015UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 0836UT  G7-AVG=+088,+027,+012
GOES6-MAX=P:+139NT@ 2011UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-009NT@ 1927UT  G6-AVG=+099,+001,+039
 FLUXFCST=STD:170,170,175;SESC:170,170,175 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,010,010
    KFCST=2235 5311 2235 5312  27DAY-AP=028,018   27DAY-KP=2475 4311 1123 6433
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M9.6/3B@1824,N12E26(7417);**TENFLR:610SFU@1816,DUR=15MIN;
          **MINFLR:M1.0/SN@1659,S13E54(7420);**245STRM:0000-1340UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was high due to a class M9.6 flare
       that was reported as a combination 3B flare at (N13 E25) in
       Region 7417 (N15 E20) and a 2B flare (N09 E25) in Region 7419
       (N11 E25).  The flare was accompanied by a radio burst of 660
       flux units at 2695 MHz but with no Type II/Type IV yet reported.
       The x-ray event began about 06/1820 UT, the optical events at
       06/1813 UT.  An earlier class M1 flare (S09 E56) began at
       06/1643 UT in Region 7420 (S07 E51). An H-alpha filament
       between 10 and 15 degrees in heliocentric longitude disappeared
       near N00 E15 over the past 24 hours. At 06/2100, the GOES
       x-ray plots are marked by a attractive series of sinusoidal
       oscillations of about 15 minutes duration each and in progress
       since the flux reached near-background levels around 06/1930 UT.
       The 10.7 cm flux value reported below is probably flare-
       enhanced.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate to high, with class M flares likely and class X flares
       possible. The focus of activity is in the area where Regions
       7417 and 7419 meet and in possible connections to Region
       7420.  The nature of the activity in Regions 7417 and 7419
       indicates a chance of an energetic particle event occurring
       over the next few days.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled
       periods.  The various types of activity occurring near solar
       central meridian may be an indication of changes in the
       large scale solar magnetic fields which could produce
       effects in the earth's geomagnetic field by 09 February.

            Event probabilities 07 feb-09 feb

                             Class M    60/70/70
                             Class X    15/15/15
                             Proton     15/15/15
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 feb-09 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7412  S14W55  192  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7414  N16W41  178  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7416  S10E14  123  0040 CAO  04  006 BETA
7417  N16E21  116  0880 EKI  13  040 BETA
7418  N05W29  166  0340 DAO  10  021 BETA
7419  N11E26  111  0050 CAO  11  009 BETA
7420  S07E51  086  0670 EKO  12  024 BETA
7421  S12W77  214  0050 CSO  06  006 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 FEBRUARY TO 09 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7401 S13   018
7408 N12   014


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1643 1649 1654 7420  S13E54 M1.0  SN
 1814 1824 1950 7417  N12E26 M9.6  2B        610
 1813 1819 2009 7419  N09E25       2B
 2000 2002 2021 7420  S08E54       SF    480



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/B1244             A1402       S26E90   EPL
06/ 1814     1824     1950       N12E26   LDE    M9.6   96


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


