From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Mon Feb  8 08:20:22 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA03620
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Mon, 8 Feb 1993 08:20:19 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA24053; Mon, 8 Feb 1993 08:19:36 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA09387; Sun, 7 Feb 1993 21:45:19 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
	id AA00590; Sun, 7 Feb 93 12:44:29 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302071944.AA00590@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 February
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 93 12:44:25 MST
X-Sequence: 568
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                05 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 036, 02/05/93
10.7 FLUX=160.1  90-AVG=135        SSN=168      BKI=1132 1222  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B8.7     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=9.7E+03  PKI=2132 1223  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=006,006,023,012,006,017,014,011   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=01:010
 XRAY-MAX= M1.0   @ 0538UT    XRAY-MIN= B6.5   @ 1933UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2310UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1905UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0625UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55414NT @ 2339UT   BOUTF-MIN=55391NT @ 1813UT  BOUTF-AVG=55408NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1949UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 0555UT  G7-AVG=+079,+031,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1949UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-008NT@ 2212UT  G6-AVG=+090,+003,+042
 FLUXFCST=STD:155,155,155;SESC:155,155,155 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=0005 5020 0005 5020  27DAY-AP=014,028   27DAY-KP=3333 3333 2475 4311
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.0@0538UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate.  A class M1.0 flare
       beginning at 05/0447 UT, with no optical counterpoint, was the
       highlight of the day.  Region 7418 (N05W15) has matured with
       continued growth and spots filling in the intermediate portion
       of the region.  Region 7420 is now clearly visible at S08E65
       and shows a fully developed trailer. Region 7419 (N11E39) shows
       a trend toward increasing comlexity with some observatories
       reporting a beta-gamma configuration.  All three regions appear
       to be moving in a common trend toward increasing activity
       though none has yet produced a verified flare larger than class C.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate to high with probable class M flares and a chance
       of class X events.  Any of the three regions listed above may
       contribute to the activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 06 feb-08 feb

                             Class M    60/70/70
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 feb-08 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7412  S15W42  192  0010 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7416  S09E26  124  0040 HAX  01  002 ALPHA
7417  N16E34  116  0980 EKI  13  040 BETA
7418  N05W15  165  0350 DKI  08  026 BETA
7419  N11E39  111  0090 DAO  10  008 BETA
7420  S07E66  084  0500 EKO  11  017 BETA
7421  S13W66  216  0030 CSO  06  004 BETA
7414  N17W22  172                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 FEBRUARY TO 08 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0448 0540 0631              M1.0



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
NO DATA


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


