From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Fri Feb  5 06:51:27 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA13564
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Fri, 5 Feb 1993 06:51:19 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA21137; Fri, 5 Feb 1993 06:50:46 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA21100; Fri, 5 Feb 1993 06:50:17 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
	id AA22264; Thu, 4 Feb 93 21:49:42 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302050449.AA22264@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 February
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 93 21:49:35 MST
X-Sequence: 566
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                04 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 035, 02/04/93
10.7 FLUX=147.4  90-AVG=135        SSN=133      BKI=3212 2121  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B6.4     FLU1=6.2E+05  FLU10=9.8E+03  PKI=3312 2332  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=029,013,007,011,011,009,010,009   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.4   @ 1043UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.2   @ 0048UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2320UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2325UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2045UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0745UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55418NT @ 0010UT   BOUTF-MIN=55386NT @ 1759UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+101NT@ 1834UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 1015UT  G7-AVG=+077,+030,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 1800UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-006NT@ 2105UT  G6-AVG=+087,+004,+041
 FLUXFCST=STD:150,155,155;SESC:150,155,155 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2233 3222 2233 3222  27DAY-AP=009,014   27DAY-KP=3222 2233 3333 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 7418 (N05W02) is growing
       rapidly and is the brightest Region on the disk. Penumbra has
       formed on both the leader and follower spots and there is a
       mixture of intermediate spots.  Region 7420 (S08E73) rotated
       onto the disk as an h-type spot with extensive bright plage.
       Small surges and subflares have been observed in this region.
       Region 7417 (N15E46) although the largest sunspot group the
       disk with an area of over 800 millionths has been relatively
       quiet.  Region 7421 (S13W50) emerged but its spot group is
       small.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.  There is an increasing chance for M-class
       flares from Regions 7417, 7418, and 7420.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled to quiet.

            Event probabilities 05 feb-07 feb

                             Class M    50/60/70
                             Class X    01/02/03
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 feb-07 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected for the next 72
       hours.  The potential for short wave fadeouts (SWFs) on daylit
       paths is increasing.  The possibility for strong SWF activity,
       although presently low, is also edging upwards.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7412  S15W28  191  0030 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7416  S10E41  122  0040 CAO  06  006 BETA
7417  N15E46  117  1020 EKI  13  023 BETA
7418  N05W02  165  0110 DSO  07  024 BETA
7419  N12E52  111  0130 CAO  10  006 BETA
7420  S08E75  088  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7421  S13W51  214  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7414  N17W09  172                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 FEBRUARY TO 07 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


