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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302042054.AA18193@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 February
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 93 13:54:17 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                03 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 034, 02/03/93
10.7 FLUX=137.0  90-AVG=135        SSN=096      BKI=0311 0223  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B5.2     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=9.0E+03  PKI=2322 2233  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=004,031,009,008,004,010,018,039   DEV-AVG=015 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C8.8   @ 1504UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.0   @ 0026UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1115UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2105UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0715UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55412NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55382NT @ 1953UT  BOUTF-AVG=55404NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+115NT@ 1944UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+007NT@ 2354UT  G7-AVG=+084,+031,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1945UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-008NT@ 1925UT  G6-AVG=+093,+003,+041
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,140,140;SESC:140,140,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,015,015
    KFCST=3344 3322 3344 3322  27DAY-AP=016,009   27DAY-KP=2324 3443 3222 2233
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7417 (N16E57) produced a
       long-duration C8.8/1F flare at 03/1504Z. Minor discrete
       frequency bursts accompanied the flare. This region is a large
       (900 millionths) EKO type spot group with a predominantly beta
       magnetic configuration.  The trailer spots of this region show
       some visual complexity.  The neutral line is oriented mostly
       north-south in direction.  Moderate to strong gradients exist
       within this region.  Transverse field line maps do not show
       excessive amounts of shear.  The National Solar Observatory
       reported extremely intense Ca XV emissions centered near N11
       with emissions extending to approximately N26 and N02 on 02
       February, just as this region was rounding the northeast limb.
       M-class flares are possible from this region.  There is
       presently only a slight risk for the development of a major
       flare.

            Region 7416 (S09E53) showed minor growth and produced
       isolated subflares. New Region 7418 (N05E13) emerged and
       produced a couple subflares late in the period. New Region 7419
       (N09E63) was also numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7417 may produce isolated M-class
       flares.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Brief periods of active
       levels are possible, especially at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 04 feb-06 feb

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 feb-06 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Some minor signal degradation was reported over a few
       high latitude stations during the local evening and early
       morning hours, although nothing particularly significant
       occurred.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for the
       next 24 to 72 hours, with periods of minor signal degradation
       possible over the higher latitude paths throughout the period.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7412  S16W14  191  0050 CSO  08  010 BETA
7416  S09E53  124  0060 CSO  05  006 BETA
7417  N16E57  120  0900 EKO  12  019 BETA
7418  N05E14  163  0020 BXO  03  007 BETA
7419  N10E63  114  0100 CAO  07  004 BETA
7413  N15W27  204                    PLAGE
7414  N17E04  173                    PLAGE
7415  S04W49  226                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 FEBRUARY TO 06 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
03/ 0315     0518     0551                LDE    C1.7  156
03/ 1450     1504     1613       N10E64   LDE    C8.8   83


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
01   S08W23 S12W26 S10W43 N04W33  220  ISO   POS   007 10830A
84   S66W05 S68W38 S35W78 S32W73  220  EXT   NEG   032 10830A
85   S53E87 S65E17 S65E17 S24E17  151  EXT   NEG   058 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


