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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302030718.AA12679@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 February
Date: Wed, 3 Feb 93 0:18:10 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                02 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 033, 02/02/93
10.7 FLUX=128.3  90-AVG=135        SSN=071      BKI=4433 2231  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B5.2     FLU1=9.4E+05  FLU10=9.4E+03  PKI=4433 3332  PAI=015
  BOU-DEV=049,044,026,033,019,017,029,008   DEV-AVG=028 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.3   @ 0350UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.8   @ 2313UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.7
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2200UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0020UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 0425UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0835UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 0403UT   BOUTF-MIN=55377NT @ 2006UT  BOUTF-AVG=55404NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+106NT@ 1845UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0823UT  G7-AVG=+074,+035,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1812UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-006NT@ 2056UT  G6-AVG=+085,+005,+047
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,135;SESC:130,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/015,015,015
    KFCST=2233 3322 2344 4332  27DAY-AP=011,016   27DAY-KP=3333 3222 2324 3443
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7412 (S17E01) produced a
       C6.3/1N flare at 02/0350Z. Region 7416 (S11E65) was stable.
       Near continuous bright surging occurred within Region 7417
       (N14E66), but no flares were observed. No new regions were
       assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Regions 7416 and 7417 may produce isolated
       M-class flares.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for
       the past 24 hours. Active levels occurred until 02/0900Z.
       Thereafter the field declined to quiet to unsettled levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Brief periods of active
       levels are possible, especially at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 03 feb-05 feb

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 feb-05 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were poor to very poor over the
       high and polar latitude paths due to residual substorm
       activity.  Conditions improved to near-normal after
       approximately 12:00 to 15:00 UT and have been near-normal
       since then.  Similar conditions (near-normal propagation with
       possible occasional minor signal degradation during the night
       sectors) are expected to persist for the next 72 hours, through
       05 February inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7412  S17E01  189  0050 CSO  10  014 BETA
7414  N17E17  173  0000 BXO  02  002 BETA
7416  S11E65  125  0030 CRO  08  007 BETA
7417  N14E66  124  0500 CKO  09  008 BETA
7407  S06W84  274                    PLAGE
7413  N15W14  204                    PLAGE
7415  S04W36  226                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 FEBRUARY TO 05 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7404 N14   094


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
02/ 0749     0838     0934                LDE    C1.7  105


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
84   S40W27 S45W31 S33W63 S33W61  239  ISO   NEG   004 10830A
85   S50E87 S63E42 S30E34 S23E40  147  EXT   NEG   051 10830A
86   S06W12 S12W15 S10W31 N03W23  222  ISO   POS   008 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


