From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Wed Feb  3 00:44:44 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA11978
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Wed, 3 Feb 1993 00:44:43 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA22301; Wed, 3 Feb 1993 00:42:41 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA22265; Wed, 3 Feb 1993 00:42:15 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
	id AA10611; Tue, 2 Feb 93 15:41:52 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302022241.AA10611@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 February
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 93 15:41:49 MST
X-Sequence: 560
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                01 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 032, 02/01/93
10.7 FLUX=125.1  90-AVG=135        SSN=057      BKI=4444 3333  BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=B9.2     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=8.9E+03  PKI=5345 3333  PAI=024
  BOU-DEV=066,052,060,064,031,039,023,025   DEV-AVG=045 NT     SWF=02:025
 XRAY-MAX= M2.2   @ 0204UT    XRAY-MIN= B6.9   @ 1051UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2010UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2325UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1940UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0805UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55427NT @ 0204UT   BOUTF-MIN=55378NT @ 1931UT  BOUTF-AVG=55402NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+113NT@ 1832UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 1046UT  G7-AVG=+069,+037,+012
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1733UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-021NT@ 0157UT  G6-AVG=+081,+003,+052
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,130;SESC:130,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/018,010,010
    KFCST=3344 4322 2233 3322  27DAY-AP=013,011   27DAY-KP=3433 3223 3333 3222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.2@0204UTC;**MINFLR:M1.4/SF@0702UTC,S09E90(7416)
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. New Region 7416 (S11E79)
       rotated into view displaying continuous bright surging. It
       produced several subflares including an M1/SF at 01/0702Z. Two
       optically uncorrelated X-ray bursts occurred: an M1 at 31/2301Z
       and an M2 at 01/0204Z were also observed. New Region 7417
       (N14E78) also rotated into view accompanied by bright surging.

            The National Solar Observatory reported very strong Ca XV
       emissions accompanying these two opposite hemisphere east-limb
       regions.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Regions 7416 and 7417 may produce isolated
       M-class flares.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
       levels for the past 24 hours. The minor storming occurred
       during the first half of the period. This activity may have
       been due to coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Brief periods of active
       levels are possible during the first day, especially at high
       latitudes.

            Event probabilities 02 feb-04 feb

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 feb-04 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths today.  Middle latitudes varied from
       near-normal during the daylight hours to below-normal during
       the night sectors.  Geomagnetic storming is responsible for
       these degradations.  Improvements are expected over all regions
       during the next 72 hours.  Conditions should be near-normal by
       about 04 February over all regions.  The potential for
       occasional minor SWF activity over the daylit paths exists.
       Energetic activity appears to have declined from the
       responsible regions on the east limb, but it is too early to
       tell if these changes in activity are long-term or temporary.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7411  S12W90  293  0180 DAO  08  006 BETA
7412  S16E13  190  0060 CSO  07  009 BETA
7416  S11E79  124  0050 HAX  01  001 ALPHA
7417  N14E78  125  0240 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7407  S06W71  274                    PLAGE
7413  N15W01  204                    PLAGE
7414  N17E30  173                    PLAGE
7415  S04W23  226                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 FEBRUARY TO 04 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7400 S09   111
7404 N14   094


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0155 0204 0235              M2.2              26
 0652 0702 0710 7416  S09E90 M1.4  SF


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
01/ 0155     0204     0235                LDE    M2.2   39


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
84   S43W21 S43W21 S25W77 S12W63  273  ISO   NEG   014 10830A
85   S44E87 S65E67 S40E47 S23E52  151  ISO   NEG   047 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


