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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302062341.AA27390@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning - 06 Feb
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 93 16:41:07 MST
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Status: OR

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                     POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

                        ISSUED: 22:00 UT, 06 FEBRUARY

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PRIMARY CANDIDATE FOR HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY : REGION 7417 (N13E20/06FEB)

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   ESTIMATED POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY OVER NEXT 7 DAYS   |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| DAYS |   C5.0   |   M1.0   |   M5.0   |   X1.0   |   X5.0   |   >X12.0   |
|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|------------|
|1( )PG|  100 %   |   60 %   |   50 %   |   25 %   |    5 %   |     1 %    |
|3( )PG|  100 %   |   70 %   |   60 %   |   40 %   |   10 %   |     2 %    |
|5(-)PG|  100 %   |   80 %   |   65 %   |   50 %   |   15 %   |     2 %    |
|7(-)P |  100 %   |   80 %   |   65 %   |   50 %   |   20 %   |     2 %    |
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAYS = Number of days (from present) into the future (1, 3, 5 and 7 days).
(+)  = Primary candidate region expected to GROW and DEVELOP.
( )  = Primary candidate region expected to STABILIZE or remain STABLE.
(-)  = Primary candidate region expected to DECAY and SIMPLIFY.
(x)P = Possible proton and/or PCA threat. (x) may be one of (+), (-), or ( ).
(x)G = If a favorable major flare develops, a moderate to high probability
       exists that the event may be geoeffective.
xx % = Probability of activity equalling or exceeding the given x-ray class
       sometime over the next number of DAYS.
WLT  = Data not applicable due to the West Limb Transit of the target region.

The above chart should be used as a guide only.  It represents anticipated
levels of activity based on current projections of region development.
Actual conditions may, of course, differ from these projections.


SYNOPSIS:

     Region 7417 combined with Region 7419 to produce a major M9.6/3B
tenflare on 06 February at 18:24 UT.  Further major flaring is possible from
Region 7417 and/or combined with nearby Region 7419.  There is concern future
major activity may involve proton injections.  Those who may be affected are
therefore alerted to the possibility of proton-related anomalies (whether
satellite related, PCA-induced, or otherwise).

     This warning will remain active until 16 February when it will expire,
unless earlier cancellation is warranted.


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