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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302190954.AA27001@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning
Date: Fri, 19 Feb 93 2:54:48 MST
X-Sequence: 88
X-Charset: FI
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Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                        ISSUED: 08:20 UT, 19 FEBRUARY

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  20 Feb - 21 Feb (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  20 Feb - 22 Feb

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR - MAJOR

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  36 TO 48 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  LOW
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - FAIR (OCCASIONALLY POOR)

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR - MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  POOR TO VERY POOR

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  40 %

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY: Several minor M-class Flares.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 05 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 25 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR
        MINOR STORM : 45 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 25 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 70%        ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR


**  End of Warning  **


