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Subject: Monthly Review of Solar & Geophysical Activity for Jan 93
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 93 12:45:24 MST
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           --  MONTHLY REVIEW OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY  --
                           Summary for January 1993

                            Report compiled by the
                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                                 P.O. Box 357
                              Stirling, Alberta
                               T0K 2E0, Canada
 
                    Data Provided In-Part Courtesy of the
                   Space Environment Services Center, NOAA
                                   and the
                NRC / Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory
                     Penticton, British Columbia, Canada


MONTHLY ACTIVITY SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 1993

     We are now in month 77 of solar cycle 22.  The number of energetic
events in January dropped substantially over the number of events observed in
December. There were 165 flares (optical and x-ray) observed during the
month of January.  This is down by 42 percent over December's value of
284 events.  A breakdown of the energetic events for the last four months
follows below, together with a summary of the percentage increase or decrease
in the number of energetic events amongst the four months.  Negative
percentages represent decreases.  For example, January had 50.6 % fewer
energetic events than November 1992.  November 1992 had 17.6 % more energetic
events than December 1992.

         ____________________________________________________________
        |                    | JAN '93 | DEC '92 | NOV '92 | OCT '92 |
        |                    | --------|---------|---------|---------|
        |              Major |      0  |     0   |     1   |     1   |
        |      Minor M-class |      2  |     4   |     7   |    24   |
        | Class C or smaller |    163  |   280   |   326   |   394   |
        |--------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
        |              Total |    165  |   284   |   334   |   419   |
        |--------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
        |                JAN |XXXXXXXXX|- 41.9 % |- 50.6 % |- 60.2 % |
        |   Percentage   DEC |+ 72.1 % |XXXXXXXXX|- 15.0 % |- 32.2 % |
        |     Change     NOV |+102.4 % |+ 17.6 % |XXXXXXXXX|- 20.3 % |
        |                OCT |+153.9 % |+ 47.5 % |+ 25.4 % |XXXXXXXXX|
         ------------------------------------------------------------

     The monthly sunspot number for January was 92.1 as computed by the SESC.
The preliminary RI international sunspot number for January was 59.1.  These
values are the lowest sunspot numbers observed since the beginning of this
solar cycle.

     The monthly 10.7 cm solar radio flux for January was 121.0.  This is the
lowest monthly 10.7 cm solar flux value observed since September 1992 when
the monthly solar flux dipped to 116.8.

     The largest flares of January were of equal-magnitude in x-rays (class
M1.1 flares) and optically uncorrelated.  The first occurred at 0436Z on 02
January.  A simultaneous bright surge was observed over the northwest limb
suggesting this event originated from departed Region 7376 (N17,L=349).  This
region crossed the west limb on 31 December and was responsible for a class
M2.6/SN event with a minor Type II sweep on 31 December at 0222Z.  It was in
a state of growth as it crossed the west limb with an observed DAO optical
configuration on 30 December when it was located at N15W78.

     The second minor M-class flare of January 1993 occurred at 2301Z on 31
January and was also rated a class M1.1 event.  A bright-surge on the east
limb accompanied this event.  Both of the minor M-class flares observed this
month were fairly long in duration, although this latter event was not
associated with any Type II or IV sweeps.  However, it was preceded
approximately 8 hours earlier (at 1500Z on 31 January) by a significant
long-decay class C6.3 flare that was associated with surging on the southeast
limb near S12.  The x-ray signature was typical of a limb-event and suggested
that the region(s) responsible for this activity were in a particularly
energetic frequent-flaring state.  East-limb Ca XV emissions were on the rise
near the end of the month.

     The list of minor M-class or greater flares and associated radio
emissions observed during January follows:

SUMMARY OF MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENTS
---------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
NO MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENTS OBSERVED.


SUMMARY OF MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS
-------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
02 Jan: 0419  0436  0506  M1.1
31 Jan: 2248  2301  2316  M1.1

     The geomagnetic field in January was slightly more active than in
December.  The estimated planetary A-index for January was 13, compared with
11 in December.  There were no reported sudden magnetic impulses at Boulder
for the month of January 1993.

     The most disturbed day was 31 January.  A disturbance gradually
commenced near 0300Z on 31 January and intensified to strong minor storm
levels by the end of the day.  High latitudes reached major storm levels with
periods of brief severe storming reported over some stations.  A clear source
for this disturbance was not apparent, but was likely related to an east-west
elongated negative-polarity coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere.
Kitt Peak 10830A imagery suggests this hole may have been a finger-extension
of the southern polar hole.  Conditions returned to mostly unsettled levels
on 01 February.


    RECENT SOLAR INDICES (PRELIMINARY) OF THE OBSERVED MONTHLY MEAN VALUES 
                        Last Updated February 10, 1993
 
              Sunspot Numbers                   Radio Flux    Geomagnetic 
      ------------------------------------    --------------  -----------
       Observed     Ratio    Smooth Values   Penticton Smooth   Smooth
      SESC    RI   RI/SESC    SESC    RI      10.7 cm  Value   Ap  Value
      ------------------------------------    --------------  -----------
                                 YEAR = 1989
Jan:  203.2  161.6  .80       189.2  141.9     235.4  190.2    19   16.7 
Feb:  211.0  164.5  .78       196.0  144.7     222.4  194.0    15   17.0 
Mar:  176.8  131.0  .74       204.1  149.4     205.1  199.7    41   17.6 
 
Apr:  172.3  129.3  .75       209.9  153.1     189.6  204.4    23   18.2 
May:  207.0  138.4  .67       216.4  156.5     190.1  209.3    16   18.8 
Jun:  297.3  196.0  .66       220.1  157.9     239.6  213.1    17   19.2 
 
Jul:  193.9  126.8  .65       221.1  158.1     181.9  212.6     8   19.1 
Aug:  243.0  166.8  .69       221.5  157.4     217.1  209.7    20   19.3 
Sep:  240.7  176.8  .74       221.3  156.3     225.9  207.2    17   18.8 
 
Oct:  217.4  158.5  .73       223.2  157.1     208.7  206.3    21   18.3 
Nov:  255.0  173.0  .68       223.4  157.3     235.1  206.1    19   18.4 
Dec:  217.8  166.1  .76       217.3  153.3     213.0  203.3    16   18.4 
 
                                 YEAR = 1990
Jan:  239.3  177.3  .74       212.4  150.6     210.1  200.4    14   18.6 
Feb:  184.7  130.5  .71       213.9  152.9     178.3  200.5    23   18.8 
Mar:  198.6  140.3  .71       212.7  152.0     188.8  198.7    23   18.6 
 
Apr:  196.1  140.3  .72       210.5  149.3     185.3  195.6    27   18.3 
May:  187.7  132.2  .70       208.1  147.0     189.7  192.4    16   17.6 
Jun:  168.9  105.4  .62       205.3  143.8     170.9  189.9    16   16.8 
 
Jul:  204.3  149.4  .73       203.8  140.6     180.7  190.4    14   16.2 
Aug:  269.4  200.3  .74       206.3  140.5     222.6  193.9    19   15.4 
Sep:  186.4  125.2  .67       211.1  142.1     177.4  198.3    14   15.0 
 
Oct:  219.0  145.5  .66       213.1  142.1     182.0  200.6    15   14.8 
Nov:  196.1  131.4  .67       213.7  141.7     184.3  201.2     9   14.4 
Dec:  208.0  129.7  .62       216.1  143.9     204.9  202.7     7   15.7 
 
                                 YEAR = 1991
Jan:  213.5  136.9  .64       220.5  147.6     229.4  205.5     8   17.4 
Feb:  270.2  167.5  .62       221.5  147.6     243.0  206.3    10   18.4 
Mar:  227.9  141.9  .62       220.7  146.6     230.0  205.9    27   19.1   

Apr:  215.9  140.0  .65       220.7  146.5     198.8  206.8    17   20.0
May:  182.5  121.3  .66       219.6  145.5     190.3  207.1    18   21.7
Jun:  231.8  169.7  .73       218.9  145.2     206.8  207.4    44   23.0
 
Jul:  245.7  173.7  .71       219.5  146.3     212.0  207.7    27   23.6
Aug:  251.5  176.3  .70       218.3  146.5     210.3  206.8    30   24.7
Sep:  185.8  125.3  .67       214.2  144.7     180.6  203.9    20   25.0
 
Oct:  220.1  144.1  .65       208.4  141.6     201.3  199.7    31   24.3
Nov:  169.0  108.2  .64       202.2  137.9     172.0  195.4    33   24.1
Dec:  217.7  144.4  .66       193.7  131.6     223.9  188.9    15   23.0

                                 YEAR = 1992
Jan:  217.9  149.3  .69       183.3  123.6     217.6  181.8    14   21.1
Feb:  238.2  159.6  .67       171.8  115.2     232.1  174.8    31   19.8
Mar:  160.5  106.9  .67       161.6  108.0     171.3  168.5    14   19.4

Apr:  144.0   99.8  .69       154.3  103.1     158.5  162.9    11   18.9
May:  106.3   73.8  .69       148.9  100.1     125.4  158.8    21   17.5
Jun:  104.7   65.2  .62       143.3   96.9     116.7  154.2    15   16.5*

Jul:  121.4   85.7  .71       134.3   90.6*    132.3  146.6*   10   16.3*
Aug:   99.5   64.5  .65                        122.1           15
Sep:   93.8   63.9  .68                        116.8           25

Oct:  136.2   88.3  .65                        130.8           15
Nov:  124.3   92.0  .74                        145.2           14
Dec:  127.4   83.3  .65                        139.1           11*

                                 YEAR = 1993
Jan:   92.1   59.1* .64*                       121.0           13*

 
* = Preliminary estimates,  Unmarked = Final Values.
 
The lowest smoothed sunspot number for Cycle 21, RI = 12.3, occurred in 
September 1986.  The sunspot maximum for this cycle (cycle 22) occurred in 
July 1989, with a peak smoothed sunspot number (RI) of 158.1.

Note: Prior to June 1991, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux measurements
originated from the Algonquin Radio Observatory near Ottawa.  From June 1991
onward, the flux has been (and will continue to be) measured from the
Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory at Penticton, British Columbia,
Canada.


      ------------------------------------------------------------------
      DAILY VALUES OF SOLAR FLUX AT 2800 MHz (PENTICTON-DRAO) AT 2000 UT
      ------------------------------------------------------------------
                         Data Valid for January 1993

           Data Courtesy of the National Research Council of Canada
                      Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics
                   Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory
                         Penticton, British Columbia
                                    CANADA

Series D is the best estimate of absolute value and is obtained by using the
multiplier 0.90 recommended by Commission V of URSI.

            1993       Observed                   Adj to 1 AU

                       Series C             Series C        Series D

             1          122.3                118.3           106.5
             2          121.4                117.4           105.7
             3          124.7                120.6           108.5
             4          121.1                117.1           105.4
             5          124.9                120.8           108.7
             6          130.1                125.8           113.2
             7          130.6                126.3           113.7
             8          132.9                128.6           115.7
             9          128.8                124.5           112.1
            10          132.1                127.7           114.9

            11          131.7                127.4           114.7
            12          140.2                135.6           122.0
            13          141.3                136.6           122.9
            14          133.1                128.8           115.9
            15          126.0                121.9           109.7
            16          133.4                129.1           116.2
            17          126.0                121.9           109.7
            18          121.6                117.7           105.9
            19          116.4                112.7           101.4
            20          110.0                106.5            95.8

            21          106.6                103.3            93.0
            22          104.2                101.0            90.9
            23          106.0                102.7            92.4
            24          104.8                101.6            91.4
            25          105.8                102.6            92.3
            26          106.5                103.3            93.0
            27          110.9                107.6            96.8
            28          112.0                108.6            97.7
            29          114.0                110.7            99.6
            30          113.0                109.6            98.6

            31          119.0                115.6           104.0

            Mean:       121.0                117.2           105.4


              OUTSTANDING EVENTS - SOLAR RADIATION AT 2800 MHZ **
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     DATE  KEY        CLASS         START  MAXIMUM DURATION  PEAK   MEAN
                                     U.T.    U.T.            FLUX   FLUX
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     January                        HOURS   HOURS   MINUTES

      No outstanding events.


  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
      SUMMARY OF AVERAGE SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR JANUARY 1993
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 (Based on SGDB data released by the S.T.D.)

10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux: 121.04
Sunspot Number:  92.13
Boulder A-Index:  12.16
Planetary A-Index:  13.45
Background X-Ray Flux (1-8A): B2.81

Proton Fluence at > 1 MeV: 1.7597e+06
Total (non-averaged) Fluence at > 1 MeV: 5.4550e+07
Proton Fluence at > 10 MeV: 1.0010e+04
Total (non-averaged) Fluence at > 10 MeV: 3.1030e+05

Average Daily Deviation of the Boulder Magnetometer:  24.13 nT

Short Wave Fadouts (SWFs):   0.06
Total Number of SWFs during Interval:    2
SWF Durations:   0.68 minutes
Total Duration of SWFs during Interval:    21 minutes

Average Daily X-Ray Flux: B4.47
Average Neutron Counts:  -0.06%
Average Daily PCA:  +0.03 dB


**  End of Monthly Report  **


