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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302191002.AA27882@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH
Date: Fri, 19 Feb 93 3:02:26 MST
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Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                        ISSUED: 08:20 UT, 19 FEBRUARY

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 23 FEBRUARY

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 20 - 23 FEBRUARY (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 35, 30, 23 (20 - 22 FEB)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  NIL

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        MOST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. STATES FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO
        SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO MICHIGAN TO
        NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN REGIONS TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.
        THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHERN AUSTRALIAN AND/OR NEW ZEALAND SITES
        MAY SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN HORIZON.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     Numerous minor solar flares on 18 February are believed to have
     generated several interplanetary disturbances.  These shock fronts are
     expected to hit the Earth's magnetosphere on 20 February and elevate
     levels of auroral activity.  Minor equatorward migration of the auroral
     ovals is anticipated.  As well, the nearly new phase of the moon will
     provide a good opportunity for observers over the middle latitudes to
     attempt spotting auroral activity from dark sky sites.  Additional
     potentially influential solar flares are expected to continue and may
     contribute additional episodes of activity throughout the coming week.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 23 February when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.  Please note that the STD
     will be unable to update or upgrade this watch after 20 February due to
     equipment which is being turned off and moved from one location to
     another.  Services to provide watches and warnings for auroral activity
     will continue after 27 February when things are restored to normal
     operation.  We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.


**  End of Watch  **


