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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302082122.AA07664@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch
Date: Mon, 8 Feb 93 14:22:07 MST
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Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                        ISSUED: 21:00 UT, 08 FEBRUARY

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 10 FEBRUARY

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 08 - 10 FEBRUARY (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 33, 25, 15 (09 - 11 FEB)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        THE EXTREME NORTHERN U.S. STATES.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN REGIONS TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.
        THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD EPISODE OF ACTIVITY
        FOR AUSTRALIAN OR NEW ZEALAND OBSERVERS.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     Auroral activity has become enhanced over the last 12 to 24 hours.
     Activity is expected to remain enhanced for approximately the next 24
     hours.  The increased activity may occasionally become sufficiently
     luminous to be observed over the upper middle latitude regions.  The
     almost full-phase of the moon will significantly hamper attempts to view
     activity from the central to southern middle latitudes and will drown
     out activity over most other regions.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 10 February when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


