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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 31 January
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 93 2:07:03 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                31 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 31 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 031, 01/31/93
10.7 FLUX=119    90-AVG=135        SSN=070      BKI=3456 5445  BAI=040
BGND-XRAY=B4.3     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=3567 5455  PAI=054
  BOU-DEV=024,064,091,159,088,069,069,079   DEV-AVG=080 NT     SWF=01:007
 XRAY-MAX= M1.1   @ 2301UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 0032UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0915UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2345UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0640UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0740UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55426NT @ 0453UT   BOUTF-MIN=55344NT @ 1943UT  BOUTF-AVG=55395NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+136NT@ 0829UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-011NT@ 0824UT  G7-AVG=+062,+040,+013
GOES6-MAX=N:+166NT@ 0834UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-038NT@ 0532UT  G6-AVG=+073,+003,+057
 FLUXFCST=STD:122,120,120;SESC:115,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=4544 3322 2233 3322  27DAY-AP=022,013   27DAY-KP=4234 5343 3433 3223
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.1@2301UTC(BSL@S12E90);**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two optically uncorrelated
       C-class x-ray bursts occurred; the largest was a long-duration
       C6.3 at 31/1500Z. Surging was reported on the southeast limb
       near S12 and probably indicates the return of old Region 7391.
       The first M-class flare since 02 January erupted from this
       region at 31/2301Z and was also accompanied by a bright surge.
       There are signs that this region is in a particularly energetic
       (frequent-flaring) state.  There is a slight risk the unseen
       region may possess the ability to spawn a major flare.  Several
       of these events have had fairly impressive long-decay x-ray
       signatures, but have not been associated with strong radio
       activity.  This region will be watched closely as it rotates
       into view.  New regions 7414 (N17E43) and 7415 (S04W10) were
       numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate to high. Occasional C to M-class flares are possible,
       particularly from the new region rotating into view around the
       southeast limb near S12.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels
       at middle latitudes for the past 24 hours. The high latitudes
       ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The disturbance
       began near 31/0300Z and continued through the remainder of
       the period; it may have been related to coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Active to minor storm levels
       are possible during the first day as the present disturbance
       subsides.

            Event probabilities 01 feb-03 feb

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 feb-03 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions have been well below normal over
       the polar to middle latitude paths.  Night-sector propagation
       has been unstable, particularly over the high latitude paths
       near the auroral ovals where strong fading, absorption, and
       multipath activity have degraded signals.  Conditions are
       expected to continue below normal through 01 February.
       Improvements may be observed over the middle latitudes on 01
       February.  Most of the improvements over the higher latitude
       paths are expected later on 01 February or on 02 February after
       the current disturbance dissipates.  Daylit paths are
       susceptible to periods of short wave fadeout (SWF) activity due
       to minor (and possibly major) solar flare activity.  A few of
       these flares have had fairly long-decay signatures which will
       support the possibility of abnormally long periods of signal
       absorption over the daylight paths.  Latest data shows frequent
       flaring to be occuring in this region.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7406  S13W91  307  0030 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7411  S12W77  293  0150 DAO  06  005 BETA
7412  S15E26  190  0070 CAO  06  011 BETA
7414  N17E43  173  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7415  S04W10  226  0000 BXO  03  002 BETA
7407  S06W58  274                    PLAGE
7413  N15E12  204                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 FEBRUARY TO 03 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7400 S09   111
7404 N14   094


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 31 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 2248 2301 2316      S12E90  M1.1 BSL


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 31 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
31/1333      1500     1608                LDE    C6.3  155
31/2248      2301     2316      S12E90    BSL    M1.1   24


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
84   S50W00 S50W00 S30W69 S18W54  272  ISO   NEG   015 10830A
85   S65E86 S65E56 S18E56 S18E56  157  ISO   NEG   064 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **



