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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301310916.AA00571@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 30 January
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 93 2:16:04 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                30 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 030, 01/30/93
10.7 FLUX=113    90-AVG=135        SSN=050      BKI=2423 2222  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B2.1     FLU1=8.3E+05  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=2313 2223  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=015,048,013,037,019,010,010,012   DEV-AVG=020 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B8.1   @ 0119UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 1001UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.5
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2150UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2055UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0640UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0710UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55416NT @ 1545UT   BOUTF-MIN=55390NT @ 1913UT  BOUTF-AVG=55405NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1951UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-003NT@ 1016UT  G7-AVG=+084,+022,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+155NT@ 1756UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-013NT@ 1855UT  G6-AVG=+095,+001,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,105;SESC:110,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,010,010/012,010,010
    KFCST=3333 3332 2223 3322  27DAY-AP=024,022   27DAY-KP=5445 3433 4234 5343
 WARNINGS=*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class
       subflares occurred. All regions were simple and stable. No new
       regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class
       subflare from Region 7412 (S15E40).

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels occurred
       at high latitudes near 30/1200-1500Z. This activity may have
       been caused by coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. Brief periods of active
       levels may occur during the first day, especially at high
       latitudes.

            A middle latitude auroral activity watch has been issued
       for 31 January.  Levels of auroral activity may become
       sufficiently enhanced to be observed over the middle latitude
       regions on 31 January.  Although lunar phase will play a minor
       interference role, activity over some areas could be quite
       easily visible, particularly north of the U.S. / Canada border
       and northern areas of Europe near the local midnight hours.

            Event probabilities 31 jan-02 feb

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 31 jan-02 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           35/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

            HF propagation conditions are expected to deteriorate to
       below-normal on 31 January due to anticipated enhancements in
       geomagnetic and auroral activity.  A return to near-normal
       propagation should be observed on 01 and 02 February.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7406  S13W81  310  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7411  S12W65  294  0150 DAO  07  013 BETA
7412  S15E40  189  0070 CAO  06  006 BETA
7407  S06W45  274                    PLAGE
7409  N18W87  316                    PLAGE
7410  S20W80  309                    PLAGE
7413  N15E25  204                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 31 JANUARY TO 02 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7399 N06   134
7391 S12   133


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS

**  End of Daily Report  **



