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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 January
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 93 2:28:46 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                29 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 029, 01/29/93
10.7 FLUX=114.0  90-AVG=136        SSN=059      BKI=1121 2212  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.9     FLU1=3.6E+05  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=0121 1212  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=005,008,015,008,013,012,008,014   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B7.9   @ 2057UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.8   @ 1653UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1905UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2025UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2035UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0825UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55414NT @ 1519UT   BOUTF-MIN=55393NT @ 1916UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+109NT@ 1953UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 1047UT  G7-AVG=+085,+030,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1745UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-007NT@ 2048UT  G6-AVG=+094,+002,+039
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,120,120;SESC:115,120,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3334 5333 2224 5222  27DAY-AP=017,024   27DAY-KP=3235 4332 5445 3433
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No optical flares
       were observed today. All sunspot regions are small and
       magnetically simple.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible in
       Regions 7411 (S12W50) and Region 7412 (S14E53).

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet for the next few hours, becoming unsettled
       to active due to a recurrent disturbance. The field should
       return to quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of the
       three day forecast period.

            Event probabilities 30 jan-01 feb

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 jan-01 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           30/30/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Conditions are expected to deteriorate somewhat on 30
       January due to a recurrent coronal disturbance.  Periods of
       poor propagation will be possible over the high and polar
       latitude paths, particularly during the night-sectors of 30 and
       possibly 31 January.  Overall improvements to near-normal are
       expected by about 01 February.  Most middle and low latitude
       paths should remain unaffected by this activity.  Upper middle
       latitude paths could be affected during the local night hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7406  S13W65  307  0060 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7411  S11W50  292  0140 DAO  07  013 BETA
7412  S16E53  189  0110 CSO  07  004 BETA
7413  N15E37  205  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7407  S06W32  274                    PLAGE
7409  N18W74  316                    PLAGE
7410  S20W67  309                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 JANUARY TO 01 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7399 N06   134
7391 S12   133


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
83   N25W58 N03W74 N30W90 N31W78  327  ISO   POS   015 10830A
84   S41E26 S45E07 S26W48 S25W34  270  EXT   NEG   025 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **



