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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301290746.AA22256@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 January
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 93 0:46:21 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                28 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 028, 01/28/93
10.7 FLUX=112.0  90-AVG=136        SSN=070      BKI=1323 2111  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B2.2     FLU1=2.9E+05  FLU10=9.1E+03  PKI=2322 2111  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=008,025,011,021,015,007,007,008   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.9   @ 1318UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.6
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2255UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1315UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2055UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0800UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55415NT @ 1606UT   BOUTF-MIN=55395NT @ 2019UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+105NT@ 1949UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 0845UT  G7-AVG=+078,+031,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1736UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-006NT@ 2151UT  G6-AVG=+089,+003,+040
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,120,120;SESC:115,120,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,015/010,020,015
    KFCST=2223 5222 3334 5333  27DAY-AP=008,017   27DAY-KP=2332 2222 3235 4332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
       past day was a C1 reaching a maximum at 27/2139Z. No optical
       activity was observed to tie this x-ray event to an active
       region currently on the disk. The rate of growth in Region
       7411 (S12W37) has slowed. New Region 7413 (N12E52) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours,
       becoming unsettled to active due to a recurrent disturbance.

            Event probabilities 29 jan-31 jan

                             Class M    05/05/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 jan-31 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/35/35
                        Minor Storm           10/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/25
                        Minor Storm           10/35/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/20/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  A recurrent disturbance is expected to begin
       affecting high and polar latitude propagation by 30 January.
       Conditions at that time may become below-normal over the polar
       to upper middle latitudes, particularly during the
       night-sectors. Some improvements should be observed on 31
       January, becoming near-normal in early February.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7406  S14W52  308  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7407  S06W19  275  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7411  S12W37  293  0080 DAO  06  011 BETA
7412  S15E63  193  0110 CSO  07  005 BETA
7413  N12E55  201  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7409  N18W61  317                    PLAGE
7410  S20W54  310                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 JANUARY TO 31 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7399 N06   134
7391 S12   133


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------

     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
83   S03W10 S03W10 N25W73 N32W63  312  ISO   POS   019 10830A
84   S38E27 S38E27 S20W53 S20W53  276  ISO   NEG   025 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **



