From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Fri Jan 22 08:22:56 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA19244
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Sat, 23 Jan 1993 00:24:29 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA29952; Sat, 23 Jan 1993 00:23:45 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA29935; Sat, 23 Jan 1993 00:23:25 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
	id AA22680; Fri, 22 Jan 93 15:23:04 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301222223.AA22680@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 January
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 93 15:22:56 MST
X-Sequence: 537
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 021, 01/21/93
10.7 FLUX=106.6  90-AVG=141        SSN=069      BKI=1213 1101  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=7.0E+04  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=2313 2111  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=007,019,006,025,008,005,002,008   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.1   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 2203UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1835UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0735UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +2.2DB @ 2255UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0625UT    PCA-AVG= +0.8DB
BOUTF-MAX=55415NT @ 0630UT   BOUTF-MIN=55391NT @ 1937UT  BOUTF-AVG=55407NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+097NT@ 1904UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 1127UT  G7-AVG=+074,+031,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1859UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-007NT@ 2208UT  G6-AVG=+092,+002,+040
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,105;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/007,007,010
    KFCST=1112 2111 1112 3111  27DAY-AP=006,002   27DAY-KP=0223 2231 0011 1210
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All of the spotted regions
       on the disk are simple, stable, and unimpressive. A new H-type
       group rotated into view today as Region 7407 (S07E68). The
       background-xray flux is dropping to the low B-class levels,
       which attests to the inactivity on the visible disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours. Some isolated unsettled periods
       were observed at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be predominantly quiet for the next two days and
       quiet to unsettled on day three.

            Event probabilities 22 jan-24 jan

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 jan-24 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions have remained near-normal over
       all regions.  No changes are expected for the next three days.
       Normal propagation should persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7401  S12W32  020  0030 CRO  06  008 BETA
7402  S25W36  024  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7403  N14W11  359  0200 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7406  S13E39  309  0090 DSO  05  008 BETA
7407  S07E70  278  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7405  S12W38  026                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 JANUARY TO 24 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7397 N10   235


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
21/B0944             A2234       S27E10   DSF
21/ 1733              1824       N19W00   DSF
21/B2241          22/ 0029       S13W31   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
82   S24E21 S32E21 S04E07 S04E07  344  ISO   POS   005 10830A
83   N24E51 N04E37 N16E13 N38E27  326  ISO   POS   025 10830A
84   S22E90 S34E90 S22E53 S22E53  284  ISO   NEG   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **



