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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301200821.AA11313@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 January
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 93 1:21:32 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                19 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 019, 01/19/93
10.7 FLUX=116.4  90-AVG=141        SSN=091      BKI=3323 3334  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B2.1     FLU1=1.1E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=3323 3343  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=029,033,015,036,027,039,039,046   DEV-AVG=033 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.3   @ 0417UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 2233UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.3
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0205UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2050UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2300UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0900UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55422NT @ 1025UT   BOUTF-MIN=55378NT @ 1924UT  BOUTF-AVG=55409NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+176NT@ 1904UT   GOES7-MIN=E:-012NT@ 2053UT  G7-AVG=+085,+021,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+195NT@ 1902UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-025NT@ 1859UT  G6-AVG=+103,-001,+034
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,105,105;SESC:110,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/018,015,010
    KFCST=4333 3334 4333 3324  27DAY-AP=007,008   27DAY-KP=1123 3221 2333 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. The six spotted
       regions on the disk are essentially simple and benign. No
       significant limb activity was reported.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled.
       Isolated active conditions occurred at both mid and high
       latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to mildly active the next 24 hours.
       Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail the last two
       days.

            Event probabilities 20 jan-22 jan

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 jan-22 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/20
                        Minor Storm           20/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

            HF propagation conditions have continued near-normal over
       all regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for
       the next 72 hours.  Minor signal degradation may occasionally
       be observed over the high and polar latitude paths near the
       auroral zones due to possible periods of enhanced geomagnetic
       and auroral activity.  However, no significant degradation is
       expected.  Near-normal propagation should return to all regions
       on 21 or 22 January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7400  S09W95  109  0120 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7401  S12W05  019  0110 DAO  05  017 BETA
7402  S23W10  024  0020 DRO  04  004 BETA
7403  N14E15  359  0190 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7404  N14W84  098  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7406  S12E66  308  0110 CAO  07  007 BETA
7405  S12W12  026                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 JANUARY TO 22 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7388 S07   269


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



