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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301180809.AA01488@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 January
Date: Mon, 18 Jan 93 1:09:47 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                17 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 017, 01/17/93
10.7 FLUX=126    90-AVG=142        SSN=089      BKI=2443 3211  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=B3.2     FLU1=2.7E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2333 2211  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=015,042,053,031,020,013,005,008   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.0   @ 1436UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 1407UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2110UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1240UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2310UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0950UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55417NT @ 0846UT   BOUTF-MIN=55401NT @ 1933UT  BOUTF-AVG=55410NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+101NT@ 2030UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+006NT@ 1238UT  G7-AVG=+071,+028,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 2011UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-009NT@ 0640UT  G6-AVG=+089,-001,+038
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,120;SESC:120,120,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=1233 4322 1233 3221  27DAY-AP=012,011   27DAY-KP=2334 2332 1133 3333
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7400 (S09W70) produced a
       C5.0/SF at 1436Z, the day's largest event. This region remains
       the most impressive of the five very ordinary spot groups now
       visible. A 25 degree long filament disappeared from S25W08 in
       the early part of the period.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Active
       periods occurred during nighttime hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 18 jan-20 jan

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 jan-20 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for the
       next 24 to 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7400  S09W70  110  0290 DAI  10  018 BETA
7401  S11E22  018  0090 DAO  05  012 BETA
7402  S26E17  023  0020 HSX  01  002 ALPHA
7403  N15E42  358  0170 HSX  03  002 ALPHA
7404  N14W54  094  0030 DAO  04  005 BETA
7398  N08W70  110                    PLAGE
7405  S12E14  026                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 JANUARY TO 20 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0105 0105 0105                          130



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
16/A1642           A17/0857      S29E09   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



