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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301180903.AA03189@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 January
Date: Mon, 18 Jan 93 2:03:42 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 016, 01/16/93
10.7 FLUX=133    90-AVG=142        SSN=102      BKI=2210 2212  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B3.9     FLU1=4.7E+05  FLU10=9.7E+03  PKI=2211 2322  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=011,015,008,004,014,015,008,014   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.1   @ 0959UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.5   @ 0456UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2355UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1510UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.9%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2010UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1530UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 1440UT   BOUTF-MIN=55397NT @ 1936UT  BOUTF-AVG=55412NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+114NT@ 2012UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 1015UT  G7-AVG=+079,+024,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+135NT@ 1955UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-011NT@ 2230UT  G6-AVG=+097,-001,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,135;SESC:135,140,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/015,010,010
    KFCST=1234 5322 1233 4322  27DAY-AP=008,012   27DAY-KP=1011 2233 2334 2332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7400 (S09W57) grew
       slightly as it produced a few impulsive C-class flares.
       Probably the most noteworthy activity was the disappearance of
       two high latitude filaments from the south-center disk early in
       the period. Each spanned more than 20 degrees. Two new Regions
       were assigned, 7404 (N13W39) and 7405 (S12E27).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. The potential for an isolated M-class flare increases if
       Region 7400 continues to develop.

            The geomagnetic field has been quiet to mildly unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.

            Event probabilities 17 jan-19 jan

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 jan-19 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/30/25
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/45/40
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are expected over the next 72 hours.
       Minor signal degradation may occur over the high and polar
       latitude paths during the next 24 hours (on 17 January) due to
       possible enhancements to the geomagnetic field from recent
       filament disappearances.  However, confidence in the arrival of
       these disturbances is relatively low.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7399  N07W82  136  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7400  S09W57  111  0280 DAI  10  019 BETA
7401  S11E35  019  0090 CSO  04  005 BETA
7402  S26E30  024  0020 HRX  01  002 ALPHA
7403  N14E56  358  0180 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7404  N14W40  094  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7405  S12E27  027  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7391  S11W79  133                    PLAGE
7395  N15W57  111                    PLAGE
7398  N08W57  111                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 JANUARY TO 19 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7383 S04   323
7379 S12   318
7381 NO5   317


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1452 1453 1454                         100
 1904 1904 1904                         100
 2033 2033 2034                         1000



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
16/A0607             B1642       S35W08   DSF
16/A0907             B1330       S48E01   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



