From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Tue Jan 19 19:42:42 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA28804
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Wed, 20 Jan 1993 11:44:25 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA09220; Wed, 20 Jan 1993 11:43:48 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA09125; Wed, 20 Jan 1993 11:43:04 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
	id AA12854; Wed, 20 Jan 93 02:42:45 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301200942.AA12854@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 January
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 93 2:42:42 MST
X-Sequence: 534
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 015, 01/15/93
10.7 FLUX=126.0  90-AVG=142        SSN=079      BKI=3234 2213  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B3.3     FLU1=6.8E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=3234 2323  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=032,015,025,042,018,019,006,021   DEV-AVG=022 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.8   @ 0947UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 2051UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.0
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1240UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 2355UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1805UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0850UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 1501UT   BOUTF-MIN=55395NT @ 2214UT  BOUTF-AVG=55413NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+104NT@ 2049UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0947UT  G7-AVG=+078,+027,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1641UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-010NT@ 2221UT  G6-AVG=+096,-001,+037
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,115,115;SESC:120,115,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,020
    KFCST=1234 5322 1234 5322  27DAY-AP=005,005   27DAY-KP=2112 1222 2112 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@0421-0426UTC;**SWEEP:II=2@0928UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Type II sweeps were
       reported, at 0421Z and 0928Z. Neither were associated with
       any optical or x-ray event. Very little of significance was
       observed.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low the next 72 hours.

            The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled.
       An episode of active conditions occurred from 0900-1200Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled the next 2 days. Day three
       brings a chance of slightly higher activity from recent
       disappearing filaments.

            Event probabilities 16 jan-18 jan

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 jan-18 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                45/45/35
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                55/55/50
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01


            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 to
       72 hours.  Occasional minor sporadic signal degradation will
       remain possible throughout the forecast period over the high
       and polar latitude paths due to potential periods of enhanced
       geomagnetic activity.  Otherwise, normal propagation should
       persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7391  S12W66  133  0010 BXO  03  005 BETA
7399  N06W67  134  0050 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7400  S09W44  111  0190 DAO  08  010 BETA
7401  S11E47  020  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7402  S25E43  024  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7403  N14E67  000  0140 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7395  N15W44  111                    PLAGE
7396  S13W78  145                    PLAGE
7398  N08W44  111                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 JANUARY TO 18 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7379 S12   318
7381 N05   317
7383 S04   323


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0421      0426                                     II
 0923 0923 0924                          270
 0928      0928                                     II
 2033 2037 2041 7403  N12E68 B5.4  SF    190



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
15/B0032             A0140       N11E90   EPL
15/B0421             A0426                RSP               1
15/B0928             A0928                RSP               2
15/B0958             A1012       S26W90   EPL    B6.8   30


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



