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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 January
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 93 23:53:06 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                14 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 014, 01/14/93
10.7 FLUX=133.1  90-AVG=141        SSN=105      BKI=3333 3333  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B4.5     FLU1=8.8E+05  FLU10=9.7E+03  PKI=3433 3333  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=027,038,020,029,031,036,038,021   DEV-AVG=030 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.7   @ 1239UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.5   @ 2219UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1330UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1735UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1010UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55428NT @ 1552UT   BOUTF-MIN=55387NT @ 1939UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+113NT@ 1951UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-002NT@ 0225UT  G7-AVG=+071,+029,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 1947UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-012NT@ 0504UT  G6-AVG=+089,-000,+040
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,125,125;SESC:N/A,N/A,N/A BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/015,015,015
    KFCST=2233 4333 2333 4323  27DAY-AP=017,005   27DAY-KP=0033 4543 2112 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The only X-ray activity
       noted was three uncorrelated C1's. Activity diminished as the
       day progressed.  X-rays were very stable at the end of the UT
       day.  An eruptive prominence was noted on the southeast limb at
       14/0655UT. Region 7400 (S09W31) showed continued slow growth.
       All other regions were stable or decaying. Region 7403 (N13E85)
       was assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7400 shows the best potential for C-class activity
       and has an outside chance of an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations saw
       minor storm levels from 14/1500Z to 14/1800Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the first day, then
       unsettled to active for the remainder of the period.

            Event probabilities 15 jan-17 jan

                             Class M    10/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 jan-17 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/35/40
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/35/45
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10

            HF propagation conditions have been near-normal over all
       regions.  No significant changes are expected over the next 72
       hours, although enhancements in geomagnetic and auroral
       activity over the higher latitude regions over the next several
       days could produce periods of minor signal degradation.
       Degradation should remain mostly isolated over the higher
       latitude paths near the auroral zones.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7391  S12W52  132  0060 DSO  04  008 BETA
7398  N08W31  111  0010 BXO  05  004 BETA
7399  N06W54  134  0040 CRO  06  007 BETA
7400  S09W31  111  0170 DAO  08  012 BETA
7401  S11E63  017  0100 HSX  03  002 ALPHA
7402  S26E56  024  0020 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7403  N13E85  355  0060 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7395  N15W31  111                    PLAGE
7396  S13W65  145                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 JANUARY TO 17 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7384 N04   346
7378 N11   343
7383 S04   323
7379 S12   318
7381 N05   317


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
14/B0655             A0742       S27E90   EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



