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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301140757.AA19082@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 January
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 93 0:57:13 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                13 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 013, 01/13/93
10.7 FLUX=141.2  90-AVG=141        SSN=146      BKI=1111 2324  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B6.5     FLU1=2.0E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1122 3324  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=006,008,008,008,012,020,019,040   DEV-AVG=015 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.2   @ 0259UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.3   @ 2248UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1335UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1125UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2255UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0940UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55429NT @ 1518UT   BOUTF-MIN=55395NT @ 2005UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+122NT@ 2011UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 1011UT  G7-AVG=+086,+028,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+143NT@ 2005UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-012NT@ 2139UT  G6-AVG=+105,-002,+037
 FLUXFCST=STD:145,140,140;SESC:145,140,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,010,015
    KFCST=2332 2223 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=005,017   27DAY-KP=1322 1211 0033 4543
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@0259UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7386 (S04W92) let
       loose with a surprise C9.2/1F flare at 13/0259Z as it crossed the
       west limb. The flare had an associated Type II sweep and loops
       with it. A respectable long-decay x-ray signature accompanied
       this flare that kept the average x-ray flux for the UT day at
       C-class levels (C1.7).  Region 7400 (S09W16), a rapidly
       emerging region, had the only other significant flare activity,
       a C3/SF flare at 13/0909Z. Regions 7401 (S11E73) and 7402
       (S26E68) were assigned today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7400 and 7399 (N07W38) have the best C-class
       activity potential. Both also have an outside chance of
       producing an isolated M-class event. Region 7394 still
       has a chance of producing an isolated C-class flare before it
       rotates off the disk.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations saw a period
       of active to minor storm levels from 13/1500 to 13/1800Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days of
       the forecast period then unsettled to active owing to a
       long-duration flare on the eleventh and a pair of filament
       disappearances on the twelfth.

            Event probabilities 14 jan-16 jan

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 jan-16 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/35
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions today.  No changes are expected for the next 48 hours.
       On 16 January, there is a chance recent solar mass ejections
       may influence propagation over the upper middle to polar
       latitude paths.  Minor signal degradation may accompany these
       disturbances if they should arrive.  Otherwise, normal
       propagation should persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7391  S12W38  131  0100 DSI  05  013 BETA
7394  S19W86  179  0130 EAO  11  013 BETA
7395  N15W18  111  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7398  N08W24  117  0030 CSO  05  012 BETA
7399  N06W40  133  0070 DSO  06  011 BETA
7400  S09W17  110  0080 DAO  06  013 BETA
7401  S11E75  018  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7402  S26E68  025  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7396  S13W52  145                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 JANUARY TO 16 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7374 S11   001
7385 S23   360
7376 N15   354
7384 N04   346
7378 N11   343
7383 S04   323


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0148 0259 0357 7386  S08W77 C9.2  1F               II



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
13/ 0148     0259     0357       S08W77   LDE    C9.2  129  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



