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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301130614.AA14605@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 January
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 93 23:14:21 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                12 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 012, 01/12/93
10.7 FLUX=140.2  90-AVG=141        SSN=165      BKI=3222 2210  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B5.0     FLU1=6.0E+05  FLU10=9.6E+03  PKI=3332 3231  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=027,018,015,012,014,014,006,004   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.1   @ 1437UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.2   @ 0704UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2255UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1540UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2320UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1725UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55427NT @ 1450UT   BOUTF-MIN=55397NT @ 2000UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+097NT@ 1758UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0937UT  G7-AVG=+071,+032,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1752UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-007NT@ 0139UT  G6-AVG=+089,+001,+041
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,135,130;SESC:135,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,010/010,015,010
    KFCST=3333 5333 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=009,005   27DAY-KP=3213 2223 1322 1211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7391 (S12W25) was
       the most active Region today. It produced three C-class flares,
       the largest of which was a C6.1/SN at 12/1437 UT, and showed
       rapid redevelopment after a period of slow decay. Region 7394
       (S17W72) produced the only other C-class flare activity, a C3/SF
       at 12/1045 UT.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7394, 7398 (N08W11), 7399 (N08W26), and 7391 all
       have C-class activity potential. Region 7394 shows the best
       chance of an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Active periods will be
       possible on 14 January in response to recent potential minor
       solar mass ejections.

            Event probabilities 13 jan-15 jan

                             Class M    10/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 jan-15 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/20
                        Minor Storm           10/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/30/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions returned to near-normal today.
       Propagation should continue near-normal over the low and middle
       latitude paths for the next 72 hours.  Upper middle latitude
       paths could experienced increased night-sector fading and minor
       signal absorption on 14 January if the anticipated disturbances
       arrive.  High and polar latitude paths should see near-normal
       propagation on the 13th, and near-normal to occasionally
       slightly below-normal propagation on the 14th due to enhanced
       periods of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Degradation
       should be strongest on night-sector paths over these higher
       latitudes.  Conditions should return to near-normal over all
       regions on 15 January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S04W79  185  0100 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7389  S20W58  164  0010 BXO  07  003 BETA
7391  S12W25  131  0110 DSI  05  014 BETA
7394  S17W71  177  0120 EAO  13  012 BETA
7395  N17W06  112  0000 BXO  03  002 BETA
7396  S13W39  145  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7398  N08W11  117  0070 CSO  07  016 BETA
7399  N08W26  132  0050 DSO  07  014 BETA
7400  S09W03  109  0010 BXO  05  011 BETA
7387  S22W75  181                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 JANUARY TO 15 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7374  S11  001
7285  S23  000
7376  N15  354
7384  N04  346
7378  N11  343


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
12/B1023             A2307       N32W08   DSF
12/B1024             A1401       S27W24   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



