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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 January
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 93 1:08:48 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                11 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 011, 01/11/93
10.7 FLUX=131.7  90-AVG=140        SSN=135      BKI=1014 5333  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B2.9     FLU1=1.8E+06  FLU10=9.9E+03  PKI=1123 6433  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=007,003,007,043,075,035,025,021   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.2   @ 1758UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 0017UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.8
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2315UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2115UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1625UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2315UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55422NT @ 0058UT   BOUTF-MIN=55388NT @ 1830UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+140NT@ 1755UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 2344UT  G7-AVG=+101,+022,+012
GOES6-MAX=P:+158NT@ 1755UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-012NT@ 1850UT  G6-AVG=+119,-006,+014
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,130,130;SESC:135,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,010,010
    KFCST=2333 2222 2333 2222  27DAY-AP=006,009   27DAY-KP=3111 1222 3213 2223
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7394 (S17W58) produced
       a C3.2/SF long duration flare at 1758Z. Region 7399 (N06W12)
       continued its steady growth. This region proved to be the
       source of two C-flares. A filament 22 degrees in extent lifted
       off the disk overnight near N02E19.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7394 and 7399 are capable of producing M-class
       flares but chances are currently placed at one in twenty. Old
       Region 7376 (1 M-flare last rotation) is expected to return by
       14 January.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Most stations went from quiet to
       minor storm during the 0900-1200Z period. Some high latitude
       stations reported severe storm conditions at 1200-1500Z. The
       field returned to unsettled levels at mid-latitudes by 2100Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days. The
       long duration event may disturb the field to active levels on
       or near 14 January.  Effects from the recent filament
       disappearance may also enhance activity slightly.

            Event probabilities 12 jan-14 jan

                             Class M    05/05/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 jan-14 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/30
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over most
       regions today.  A brief period of moderate geomagnetic activity
       produced signal propagation problems on paths crossing or
       passing near the auroral ovals between approximately 13:00 UT
       and 15:00 UT.  These degradations also spread into the upper
       middle latitudes during the most disturbed period of this
       activity.  However, the short-lived nature of this disturbance
       has allowed the ionosphere to recover to near-normals by the
       end of the UT day.  Normal propagation is expected over the
       next 48 hours.  On 14 January, another solar disturbance may
       arrive, producing additional minor signal degradation.
       Transauroral paths are likely to be affected the most if this
       disturbance materializes.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7386  S05W64  183  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7389  S20W46  165  0010 BXO  05  007 BETA
7391  S12W12  131  0040 CSO  04  005 BETA
7394  S16W59  178  0120 DSO  10  011 BETA
7395  N13E07  112  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7396  S13W25  144  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7398  N07E03  116  0060 DSO  07  014 BETA
7399  N07W12  131  0030 CRO  05  011 BETA
7387  S22W62  181                    PLAGE
7392  N14W71  190                    PLAGE
7393  S20W78  197                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 JANUARY TO 14 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7374 S11   001
7385 S23   000
7376 N15   354


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
11/ 2109     2202     2320       S12W09   LDE    C1.1  131


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



