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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 January
Date: Sun, 3 Jan 93 2:45:45 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                02 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 002, 01/02/93
10.7 FLUX=121.4  90-AVG=139        SSN=079      BKI=3223 3332  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=1.6E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3235 4332  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=020,014,016,029,035,038,026,018   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=01:014
 XRAY-MAX= M1.1   @ 0433UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 0054UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1605UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2320UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2125UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1135UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55423NT @ 0342UT   BOUTF-MIN=55395NT @ 1816UT  BOUTF-AVG=55411NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1700UT   GOES7-MIN=E:-011NT@ 1102UT  G7-AVG=+065,+019,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+140NT@ 1700UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-027NT@ 1402UT  G6-AVG=+083,-002,+029
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,125;SESC:120,120,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,018,018
    KFCST=2224 4222 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=008,005   27DAY-KP=3332 1211 2111 2321
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.1@0436;**SWEEP:II=2@0524UTC;**SWEEP:II=1@2352UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. An M1 X-ray burst
       occurred at 02/0436Z. An optical flare was not observed;
       however, a bright surge (BSL) over the northwest limb suggests
       that departed Region 7376 may have been the source, at that
       time a little over a day behind the limb. Disk Regions have
       been quiet. New Regions 7388 (S08W30) and 7389 (S17E73) were
       numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at all stations
       until about 02/0900Z. After that the field was mostly unsettled
       at middle latitudes and active to storm at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled at middle latitudes and
       unsettled to active at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 03 jan-05 jan

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 jan-05 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/40
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                60/60/60
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal except over the
       high and polar latitude paths where enhanced geomagnetic and
       auroral activity resulted in minor signal degradations.
       Occasional isolated minor signal degradation will likely
       continue over the night and morning sectors of the high and
       polar latitude paths for the next 72 hours.  Most middle and
       low latitude paths will see near-normal propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7379  S14W78  316  0020 HRX  02  002 ALPHA
7381  N03W82  320  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7386  S04E56  182  0240 HSX  05  003 ALPHA
7387  S23E59  179  0150 DSO  10  007 BETA
7388  S08W30  268  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7389  S17E73  165  0020 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7382  S18W55  293                    PLAGE
7383  S04W84  322                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 JANUARY TO 05 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7364 N08   139
7363 S08   136
7371 S09   125


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0419 0436 0506              M1.1
 0524      0558                                     II
 2337 2352 0011 7379  S13W79 C8.4  SF               II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
02/B0524             A0558                RSP               2
02/ 1943     2015     2128                LDE    C1.1  105
02/B2351          03/A0000       S13W79   RSP    C8.4   34  1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **



