From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Sat Jan  2 19:25:07 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA22064
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Sun, 3 Jan 1993 11:26:38 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA09958; Sun, 3 Jan 1993 11:25:59 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA09940; Sun, 3 Jan 1993 11:25:31 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
	id AA01627; Sun, 3 Jan 93 02:25:10 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301030925.AA01627@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 January
Date: Sun, 3 Jan 93 2:25:07 MST
X-Sequence: 495
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                01 JANUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 JANUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 001, 01/01/93
10.7 FLUX=122.3  90-AVG=140        SSN=075      BKI=2331 2122  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=1.4E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2332 2222  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=012,023,022,009,015,009,010,019   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.2   @ 1343UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.7   @ 2139UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.6
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1200UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2210UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0625UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0920UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55424NT @ 0331UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 1846UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+136NT@ 1859UT   GOES7-MIN=E:-003NT@ 0641UT  G7-AVG=+091,+020,+013
GOES6-MAX=P:+157NT@ 1859UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-018NT@ 0349UT  G6-AVG=+109,-007,+029
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,120;SESC:120,120,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2224 4222 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=011,008   27DAY-KP=2333 3222 3332 1211
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
       past day was an optically uncorrelated C4 at 01/1343Z. This
       flare was associated with a 930 sfu radio burst at 245 MHz.
       New Region 7387 (S23E71) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Additional C-class flares are expected, possibly from
       Regions 7379 (S12W69), 7386 (S04E69), and 7387.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 02 jan-04 jan

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 jan-04 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  No changes in propagation are expected over the next
       72 hours.  Near-normal propagation should persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z JANUARY
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7378  N12W91  342  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7379  S12W67  318  0070 DSO  05  005 BETA
7381  N04W70  321  0100 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7383  S04W71  322  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7386  S04E69  182  0240 HHX  03  001 ALPHA
7387  S23E71  180  0180 CAO  09  006 BETA
7382  S18W42  293                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 JANUARY TO 04 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7364 N08   139
7363 S08   136
7371 S09   125


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 JANUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1150 1154 1157              C3.2       1600 33
 1333 1343 1354              C4.2        930
 1842 1843 1843                          130


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 JANUARY, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
79   N24W47 N07W88 N20W88 N27W68  334  ISO   POS   020 10830A
80   S65E77 S85W43 S28W46 S21W43  244  EXT   NEG   140 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **



