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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301310927.AA01703@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 31 Jan
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 93 2:27:16 MST
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Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                         ISSUED: 06:00 UT, 31 JANUARY

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VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 01 FEBRUARY

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 31 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 25, 15, 10
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
        SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK
        STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO SOUTHERN DENMARK AND MOST OF NORWAY, INCLUDING
        CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN AND MOST OF FINLAND AND INTO NORTHERN
        RUSSIA. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY
        FOR AREAS OF SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND, ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK
        DIFFUSE ACTIVITY MAY BE GLIMPSED FOR BRIEF PERIODS IF CONDITIONS
        BECOME FAVORABLE.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     A solar coronal disturbance has begun affecting levels of auroral
     activity.  Activity has become enhanced.  Auroral oval expansion has
     occurred with intensified luminosity, making the activity easily visible
     from most Canadian provinces and most northern U.S. states.  The
     activity is predominantly inactive and diffuse, but some brief substorm
     periods have been reported over localized regions.  This is not a
     significant episode of activity.  Lower latitudes are not expected to
     observe any of this activity.  Lunar phase will provide minor
     interference during this disturbance.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 01 February when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **



