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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9301260726.AA09170@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 26 Jan
Date: Tue, 26 Jan 93 0:26:18 MST
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Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                         ISSUED: 00:00 UT, 26 JANUARY

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VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 27 JANUARY

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 26 - 28 JANUARY (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 25, 20, 15
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  LOW TO MODERATE

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        PRIMARILY EXTREME SOUTHERN CANADA NORTHWARD.  A FEW NORTHERN U.S.
        LOCATIONS MAY ALSO SPOT SOME ACTIVITY UNDER DARK SKIES OVER THE
        CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S..

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO THE NETHERLANDS.  THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
        PARTICULARLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAS OF SOUTHERN AUSTRALIAN AND
        NEW ZEALAND.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     A fair to good opportunity for observing auroral activity will exist
     over the next 24 to 48 hours.  A well-placed solar coronal hole is
     expected to generate the activity.  The brunt of activity should occur
     on 26 January, but is not expected to be very strong.  Most of the
     observed auroral activity should be confined to areas north of the U.S./
     Canada border.  Users of our auroral activity prediction and simulation
     software should input values of between 20 and 30 (the target activity
     level for 26 January is 25, dropping to 20 and 15 for 27 and 28 Jan.)
     for the best contoured maps of predicted auroral visibility. For more
     information, contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA, or: COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 27 January when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **



