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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212160908.AA28716@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 December
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 92 2:08:41 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 350, 12/15/92
10.7 FLUX=155.5  90-AVG=135        SSN=179      BKI=3223 2223  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B5.5     FLU1=6.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3213 2223  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=022,012,012,022,016,013,015,020   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.9   @ 0113UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.7   @ 2005UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2110UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0600UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1335UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 0456UT   BOUTF-MIN=55398NT @ 2114UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+115NT@ 1744UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+002NT@ 0307UT  G7-AVG=+074,+025,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1745UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-022NT@ 0733UT  G6-AVG=+093,-006,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:155,155,150;SESC:155,155,150 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,007,010/010,010,012
    KFCST=2223 3222 2223 3222  27DAY-AP=005,006   27DAY-KP=2111 3221 1212 3211
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7360 (S17W48) showed minor
       spot development and produced the largest flare of the period:
       a C6.9/1N at 15/0113Z. Region 7368 (S33E23) displayed gradual
       growth while producing a few C-class flares. The largest of
       these was a C4/1F at 15/0907Z. Region 7362 (S06W62) also showed
       minor development and produced a single C-class subflare. New
       Regions 7369 (S06E54) and 7370 (S07E67) were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Regions 7362 and 7368 are expected to produce
       C-class flares. Region 7362 also provides a slight chance for
       an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm conditions were
       observed at some high latitude stations late in the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 16 dec-18 dec

                             Class M    30/30/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 dec-18 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  No significant changes are expected over the next
       several days.  Near-normal propagation should persist.  High
       and polar latitude paths may observe periodic minor signal
       degradation due to localized anomalies in the geomagnetic
       field, concentrated mostly during the local night sector.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S17W90  205  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7360  S17W49  164  0270 EHO  13  017 BETA
7362  S06W61  176  0750 DKO  10  020 BETA
7363  S07W21  136  0060 CAO  06  012 BETA
7364  N09W22  137  0060 CSO  08  005 BETA
7366  S12E05  110  0040 CAO  07  017 BETA
7368  S33E23  092  0070 DAO  05  015 BETA
7369  S06E54  061  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7370  S07E67  048  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7365  S23W77  192                    PLAGE
7367  S15W65  180                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 DECEMBER TO 18 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7354 S23   005


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
75   N47W40 N28W72 N75W90 N75W90  189  ISO   POS   069 10830A
76   S02E26 S16E01 S10W02 N15E12  114  ISO   POS   013 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


