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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212110410.AA08121@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 December
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 92 21:10:19 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                10 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 345, 12/10/92
10.7 FLUX=142.2  90-AVG=133        SSN=142      BKI=1123 1333  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B5.1     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=1224 2433  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=006,009,014,036,008,038,022,022   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.6   @ 2257UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.0   @ 0255UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2130UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1755UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1445UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55424NT @ 1444UT   BOUTF-MIN=55394NT @ 1657UT  BOUTF-AVG=55415NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+109NT@ 1908UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+003NT@ 1220UT  G7-AVG=+077,+027,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 2003UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-015NT@ 2357UT  G6-AVG=+094,-005,+032
 FLUXFCST=STD:145,150,155;SESC:145,150,155 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1133 4211 1223 4210  27DAY-AP=013,008   27DAY-KP=1224 5222 2223 3222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Nearly all of the small flares
       observed originated in Region 7362 (S04E05). This region grew
       substantially in white light and H-alpha while developing a
       modest degree of magnetic complexity. An as yet unnumbered
       Region near S11E80 had both of the day's remaining subflares.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Further development in Region 7362 may result
       in an isolated M-class event. Nearby Regions 7360 (S17E18) and
       7363 (S07E46) bear watching.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes.
       Episodic active conditions occurred at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be predominantly unsettled. Short-lived active
       conditions may occur during local nighttimes.

            Event probabilities 11 dec-13 dec

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 dec-13 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                45/55/35
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  No significant changes are expected for the next 72
       hours.  Low and middle latitude paths should see generally good
       to very good propagation.  High and polar latitude paths should
       observe mostly fair propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S17W26  207  0080 CAO  10  004 BETA
7360  S17E18  163  0110 DAO  08  022 BETA
7362  S04E04  177  0270 DAI  09  027 BETA-GAMMA
7363  S07E45  136  0200 DAO  09  012 BETA
7364  N11E42  139  0060 CSO  05  003 BETA
7365  S20W15  196  0050 CSO  07  014 BETA
7358  N07W71  252                    PLAGE
7359  S28W37  218                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 DECEMBER TO 13 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7347 S06   072
7345 S23   057
7346 S08   053


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


