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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212102014.AA04969@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 December
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 92 13:14:48 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                09 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 344, 12/09/92
10.7 FLUX=134.0  90-AVG=133        SSN=128      BKI=3232 4322  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B4.5     FLU1=2.9E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=3233 4332  PAI=015
  BOU-DEV=027,015,025,019,042,025,019,010   DEV-AVG=022 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.3   @ 1121UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.7   @ 2236UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.7
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2300UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2140UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2255UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1525UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55428NT @ 0127UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 1750UT  BOUTF-AVG=55416NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+110NT@ 1932UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+003NT@ 1019UT  G7-AVG=+073,+027,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1932UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-014NT@ 2352UT  G6-AVG=+091,-005,+031
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,140,145;SESC:140,140,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2234 4332 2233 3222  27DAY-AP=011,013   27DAY-KP=2323 3333 1224 5222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**MAGSI:20NT@2000UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  The largest event was a C6.3/SN
       flare from Region 7363 (S07E58) at 1121UT, that appears to have
       encouraged a nearby filament to disappear shortly thereafter
       between 1124UT and 1147UT near E66. This region has shown some
       growth over the past 24 hours and has been the source of most
       of the activity during the period. Region 7362 (S04E17) was the
       source of the other small events.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low.

            The geomagnetic field has been generally unsettled to
       active the past 24 hours.  A weak sudden magnetic impulse of 20
       nanoteslas was recorded at Boulder at 2000UT.  A brief period
       of minor storm conditions occurred after 1200UT at high
       latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled at the start of the period
       trending toward quiet conditions by the end of the period.

            Event probabilities 10 dec-12 dec

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 dec-12 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/20
                        Minor Storm           01/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           01/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected to persist for the
       next three days, through 12 December inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S16W16  210  0090 CSO  12  006 BETA
7360  S17E30  164  0040 CSO  11  012 BETA
7362  S04E18  176  0130 DAI  08  029 BETA-GAMMA
7363  S07E58  136  0170 DAO  09  011 BETA
7364  N09E54  140  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7365  S21W00  194  0030 CSO  06  009 BETA
7358  N07W58  252                    PLAGE
7359  S28W24  218                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 DECEMBER TO 12 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7347 S06   072


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1115 1121 1126 7363  S06E60 C6.3  SN    340 22


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
09/ 1124              1147       S01E66   DSF    C6.3   11


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
74   S09W58 S18W62 S16W73 S05W63  268  ISO   NEG   006 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


