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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212090958.AA29589@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 December
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 92 2:58:13 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                08 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 343, 12/08/92
10.7 FLUX=129.0  90-AVG=133        SSN=101      BKI=3334 3334  BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=B6.3     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=9.4E+03  PKI=3334 4344  PAI=020
  BOU-DEV=027,025,025,047,027,021,023,044   DEV-AVG=029 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.4   @ 0656UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.9   @ 2320UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2200UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0800UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1350UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55428NT @ 0324UT   BOUTF-MIN=55399NT @ 2129UT  BOUTF-AVG=55417NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+111NT@ 1939UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-003NT@ 0509UT  G7-AVG=+063,+030,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1939UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-038NT@ 0707UT  G6-AVG=+081,-005,+035
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,140;SESC:130,135,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,012,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3334 5433 2234 4332  27DAY-AP=021,011   27DAY-KP=3544 4323 2323 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  New Region 7363 (S08E67)
       produced a C5.4/SF flare at 1809Z, the largest flare of the
       day. Region 7360 (S17E42) produced a C4/SF flare, and there
       were three uncorrelated C-class flares, possibly associated
       with Region 7361 behind the west limb. Three new Regions were
       numbered: Region 7363, Region 7364 (N09E65), and Region 7365
       (S21E12). New leader spots emerged associated with Region 7355
       (S17W00), expanding the Region from an HAX type to a CAO.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.  Region 7363 has the best potential of producing an M-class
       flare, although present probability is low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active
       levels for the past 24 hours, due to a trans-equatorial
       extension of the southern polar coronal hole.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active early in the period and
       mostly unsettled later on, as the coronal hole moves out of
       favorable position.

            Event probabilities 09 dec-11 dec

                             Class M    20/30/30
                             Class X    01/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 dec-11 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                70/45/20
                        Minor Storm           15/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                60/60/35
                        Minor Storm           20/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Only slight degradation of signals was noted over the
       high and polar latitude paths due to enhanced geomagnetic
       activity.  All other regions experienced near-normal
       propagation.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 24
       hours, with a gradual stabilizing trend anticipated on 10 and
       11 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S17W00  207  0110 CAO  10  008 BETA
7360  S17E42  165  0050 CRO  11  011 BETA
7362  S04E31  176  0050 CSO  06  009 BETA
7363  S08E67  140  0070 DSO  07  006 BETA
7364  N09E65  142  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7365  S21E12  195  0020 CAO  05  006 BETA
7358  N07W45  252                    PLAGE
7359  S28W11  218                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 DECEMBER TO 11 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


