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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212080706.AA24975@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 December
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 92 0:05:57 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 342, 12/07/92
10.7 FLUX=120.1  90-AVG=132        SSN=051      BKI=0123 4124  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=3.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2233 4334  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=004,007,019,023,040,008,011,040   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.0   @ 1434UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 0945UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1335UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0935UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1440UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1320UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55429NT @ 1232UT   BOUTF-MIN=55405NT @ 1355UT  BOUTF-AVG=55418NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+161NT@ 2217UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-033NT@ 0812UT  G7-AVG=+078,+017,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+176NT@ 2217UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-017NT@ 2114UT  G6-AVG=+095,-005,+022
 FLUXFCST=STD:122,127,130;SESC:122,127,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,012/025,020,015
    KFCST=4544 4333 3444 3333  27DAY-AP=011,021   27DAY-KP=3233 2323 3544 4323
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
       period was an optically uncorrelated C6.0 at 07/1434Z. Region
       7361 (S14W85) continued to emerge and produced frequent
       subflares. The first YOHKOH image received since 04 Dec
       revealed two Regions at approximately N10E90 and S09E90. The
       northern Region is more extensive and is the likely source of
       the C6.0 flare above and the long duration C2 flare noted on 06
       Dec. However, neither Region is intense in X-rays or at 10cm.
       Both regions were responsible for moderate to strong Ca XV
       limb emissions on 06 December.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should be
       generally low. The new Regions at the east limb and Region
       7361 could produce an isolated M-class flare but limb
       proximity prevents accurate assessment.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet until near 07/0900Z
       when unsettled to active conditions began. High latitude
       stations experienced major storming between 07/1300-1500Z.
       Some stations noted a sudden magnetic impulse with the arrival
       of this disturbance. Following this disturbance, the field
       returned to unsettled levels. The source of this disturbance is
       most likely the transequatorial lobe of the southern polar
       coronal hole now about 3 days past central meridian.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should continue at generally active levels for 08-09 Dec.
       Minor, to brief major, storm levels at high latitudes are
       possible during this interval. Predominantly unsettled
       conditions should occur on 10 Dec as the coronal hole
       related high speed solar wind stream leaves the vicinity of
       the earth.

            Event probabilities 08 dec-10 dec

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 dec-10 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                60/40/25
                        Minor Storm           30/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                70/50/40
                        Minor Storm           30/25/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/10/05

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Slight degradation was noted during the period of
       enhanced geomagnetic activity between 1300 and 1500 UT.
       However, conditions improved to near-normal by the end of the
       day.  Occasional minor signal degradation may persist for the
       next 24 hours before conditions improve back to near-normal on
       09 or 10 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S17E16  205  0090 HAX  02  003 ALPHA
7360  S17E54  167  0020 BXO  11  004 BETA
7361  S14W86  307  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7362  S04E43  178  0010 AXX  01  003 ALPHA
7357  N14E08  213                    PLAGE
7358  N07W32  253                    PLAGE
7359  S28E02  219                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 DECEMBER TO 10 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


