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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 December
Date: Mon, 7 Dec 92 2:30:40 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                06 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 341, 12/06/92
10.7 FLUX=120    90-AVG=132        SSN=087      BKI=1001 1211  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B3.7     FLU1=2.6E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2111 2321  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=006,003,004,006,008,017,006,005   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.6   @ 1920UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.4   @ 0911UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1900UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0510UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1555UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 2110UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 1204UT   BOUTF-MIN=55406NT @ 1900UT  BOUTF-AVG=55419NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1757UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+005NT@ 0941UT  G7-AVG=+083,+026,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 1756UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-015NT@ 2356UT  G6-AVG=+100,-007,+030
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,126;SESC:120,120,126 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,015,018/012,018,025
    KFCST=2223 3333 3333 4433  27DAY-AP=042,011   27DAY-KP=2376 6443 3233 2323
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two class C2 flares occurred:
       one at 06/0032Z and the other reached maximum near 1920Z. The
       latter event began near 1700Z and was of very long duration. No
       unambiguous optical correlation was received for the long
       duration event. However, at the end of the X-ray enhancement,
       observatories did report a weak loop prominence system becoming
       visible at NE09. Only a weak spotless Region was visible at
       that location last rotation. New Region 7361 (S15W73) emerged
       and grew at a moderate pace. Plage in this Region was also
       enhanced during the LDE.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at a low level. In spite of the LDE mentioned above, there
       are no significant Regions due to return. The current disk
       Regions do not appear capable of producing energetic flares.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be unsettled on 07 Dec becoming generally active on
       08-09 Dec. During this period, some high latitude stations
       may experience intervals of minor storm conditions. The
       source of this forecast disturbance is a transequatorial
       lobe of the southern polar coronal hole which appears to
       have expanded significantly since last rotation.  It presently
       extends up to approximately 20 degrees solar latitude at the
       central meridian.

            Event probabilities 07 dec-09 dec

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 dec-09 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/40/40
                        Minor Storm           10/25/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/40/40
                        Minor Storm           20/30/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are expected until sometime on 08
       December when conditions could begin to gradually degrade.  The
       southern polar coronal extension should result in enhanced
       geomagnetic activity and degraded propagation from the middle
       to polar latitudes after 08 December.  Poor propagation is
       expected over the high and polar latitude paths on 09 and 10
       December as a result.  Middle latitudes could see periods of
       fair propagation on 09 and 10 December if this disturbance
       materializes.  Otherwise, generally good propagation should
       persist.  Low latitudes should continue to observe good
       propagation throughout the next three days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7355  S17E29  205  0110 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7356  S12W85  319  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7358  N07W19  253  0020 BXO  04  006 BETA
7359  S28E15  219  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7360  S17E65  169  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7361  S16W74  308  0000 AXX  02  001 ALPHA
7362  S04E59  175  0010 BXO  02  002 BETA
7357  N14E21  213                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 DECEMBER TO 09 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7337 N07   138
7342 S08   132


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
06/ 1658     1920     2010                LDE    C2.6  192


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
71   N22W74 N12W90 N12W90 N22W74  334  ISO   POS   003 10830A
72   S50E79 S85W90 S85W90 S20W26  246  EXT   NEG   145 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


