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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212061919.AA16859@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 December
Date: Sun, 6 Dec 92 12:19:03 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                05 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 340, 12/05/92
10.7 FLUX=116.3  90-AVG=133        SSN=120      BKI=3231 0100  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B3.7     FLU1=1.6E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3332 1211  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=023,017,024,009,004,006,004,003   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.1   @ 1603UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.2   @ 1753UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0510UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1630UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1530UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1410UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55425NT @ 0201UT   BOUTF-MIN=55407NT @ 1912UT  BOUTF-AVG=55418NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+102NT@ 1921UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 1117UT  G7-AVG=+072,+029,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1920UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-016NT@ 0142UT  G6-AVG=+090,-006,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,110;SESC:105,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/010,015,015
    KFCST=1113 5111 1112 3111  27DAY-AP=009,042   27DAY-KP=3232 2223 2376 6443
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Only one C-class flare
       occurred today, an uncorrelated C2.1 at 1603Z. All of the
       Regions on the disk were quiet and stable. Three new Regions
       were assigned: 7358 (N07W05), 7359 (S28E26), and 7360 (S16E79).

            An eruptive prominence was observed on the southwest limb
       near S53 between 1227Z and 1848Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled for the next 24 hours. An
       increase to unsettled to occasionally active levels is expected
       on the second and third days in response to a favorably
       positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 06 dec-08 dec

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 dec-08 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/25/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are expected over the next 72 hours.
       Propagation may deteriorate slightly on 07 and 08 December due
       to anticipated minor enhancements in geomagnetic activity, but
       overall propagation should continue near-normal.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7348  N12W92  339  0120 HAX  04  001 ALPHA
7350  S21W92  339  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7352  N21W88  335  0130 DAO  08  006 BETA
7355  S17E43  204  0120 HAX  03  002 ALPHA
7356  S14W74  321  0020 BXO  06  005 BETA
7357  N14E34  213  0010 BXO  02  002 BETA
7358  N07W05  252  0020 CRO  03  007 BETA
7359  S28E26  221  0020 CRO  05  005 BETA
7360  S16E79  168  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7351  S15W88  335                    PLAGE
7353  S07W61  308                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 DECEMBER TO 08 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7337 N07   138
7342 S08   132


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0325 0326 0327                          220


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
05/B1227             A1848       S53W90   EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


