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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212051946.AA12968@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 December
Date: Sat, 5 Dec 92 12:46:48 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                04 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 339, 12/04/92
10.7 FLUX=119.8  90-AVG=133        SSN=094      BKI=2333 4222  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B4.2     FLU1=1.0E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2333 3222  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=013,039,031,025,043,017,013,013   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=03:025
 XRAY-MAX= M2.1   @ 1749UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.9   @ 0042UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1155UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2135UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2150UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1340UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55423NT @ 0131UT   BOUTF-MIN=55396NT @ 1809UT  BOUTF-AVG=55414NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+100NT@ 1922UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-003NT@ 1033UT  G7-AVG=+067,+030,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1921UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-016NT@ 0205UT  G6-AVG=+092,-010,+018
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,105,105;SESC:115,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/010,015,010
    KFCST=1112 3111 1113 5111  27DAY-AP=009,009   27DAY-KP=1133 2312 3232 2223
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.4/SF@1140,N19W71(7352);**MINFLR:M2.1/SF@1749,N19W67
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7352 (N20W80)
       produced two M-class flares. The largest flare was a long
       duration M2.1/SF at 1749Z. The X-ray signature of this event
       featured a twin peak. The earlier flare was an M1.4/SF at
       1140Z. Other Regions on the disk were stable. A new Region was
       assigned: 7357 (N13E43).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7352 will be rotating off the disk late
       tomorrow but may produce an isolated M-class flare from beyond
       the limb.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.  Isolated active periods have
       been reported over some high latitude stations.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled. A southern hemisphere
       coronal hole may produce active levels at high latitudes
       on 6 December.

            Event probabilities 05 dec-07 dec

                             Class M    25/10/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 dec-07 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions except for some northerly middle, high, and polar
       latitude regions.  Minor enhancements in geomagnetic activity
       were observed over these regions between 1200 UT and 2400 UT
       that may have been responsible for increased fading,
       multipathing.  Evidence of elevated noise levels also exists
       over these paths.  Despite this, overall global propagation is
       near-normal.  Propagation should return to normal over all
       regions on 05 December.  Good propagation should persist
       through 07 December.  Minor degradation may reappear on 06
       December due to the coronal hole noted above, but conditions
       should again return to near-normal on 07 December.  There is a
       persisting chance for short wave fadeouts over daylit paths due
       to minor solar flare activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7348  N11W84  344  0170 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7350  S21W76  336  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7352  N19W80  340  0190 FSO  16  008 BETA
7353  S07W48  308  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7355  S17E56  204  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7356  S13W58  318  0020 BXO  03  005 BETA
7357  N12E45  215  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7349  S06W84  344                    PLAGE
7351  S15W75  335                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 DECEMBER TO 07 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7341 S16   163
7337 N07   138
7342 S08   132


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1135 1140 1147 7352  N19W71 M1.4  SF
 1730 1749 1809 7352  N19W67 M2.1  SF


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


