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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212040421.AA04952@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 December
Date: Thu, 3 Dec 92 21:21:05 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                03 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 338, 12/03/92
10.7 FLUX=125.5  90-AVG=133        SSN=074      BKI=3433 3322  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B4.5     FLU1=1.7E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2423 3322  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=020,047,022,035,021,023,010,010   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.7   @ 2035UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.6   @ 1808UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2345UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2210UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1900UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55434NT @ 1722UT   BOUTF-MIN=55401NT @ 1919UT  BOUTF-AVG=55411NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+098NT@ 1704UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-008NT@ 0953UT  G7-AVG=+067,+029,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1933UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-021NT@ 0410UT  G6-AVG=+085,-006,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,110,105;SESC:120,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,010/015,012,010
    KFCST=1113 4111 1113 4000  27DAY-AP=012,009   27DAY-KP=1133 4332 1133 2312
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7352 (N20W68) produced
       the day's largest event, a C3.7/SF at 2035Z. Region 7352 was
       creditied with eight other subflares. All other Regions on the
       disk were stable. One new Region was assigned, Region 7356
       (S12W44).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7352 shows little potential for an isolated M-class
       flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Some high latitude stations
       reported storm conditions for the period 1200-1800Z, perhaps
       due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled. Mid-latitude stations may experience
       quiet levels on the second day of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 04 dec-06 dec

                             Class M    15/10/05
                             Class X    05/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 dec-06 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/25
                        Minor Storm           10/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 72
       hours.  High and polar latitude paths should see mostly fair
       propagation, while middle and low latitude paths should observe
       generally good to occasionally very good propagation.
       Night-sector signal instabilities may sporadically increase
       over localized regions due to occasional minor enhancements in
       geomagnetic activity.  No major diturbances are expected.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7348  N11W69  342  0190 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7350  S20W64  337  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7352  N19W69  342  0280 FAI  16  015 BETA
7353  S08W33  306  0010 BXO  04  005 BETA
7355  S17E69  204  0120 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7356  S13W44  317  0010 CRO  03  002 BETA
0  N17E72     000                    PLAGE
7349  S06W71  344                    PLAGE
7351  S15W62  335                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 DECEMBER TO 06 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7341 S16   163


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


