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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9212030929.AA00965@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 December
Date: Thu, 3 Dec 92 2:29:30 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                02 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 337, 12/02/92
10.7 FLUX=130.3  90-AVG=133        SSN=094      BKI=3322 2222  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B4.6     FLU1=1.2E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3333 2221  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=025,029,017,015,010,014,011,016   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.3   @ 0925UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.7   @ 1800UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1555UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2305UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0840UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1430UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55421NT @ 1432UT   BOUTF-MIN=55396NT @ 1927UT  BOUTF-AVG=55413NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+109NT@ 1855UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+004NT@ 0928UT  G7-AVG=+075,+030,+010
GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 2052UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-015NT@ 2359UT  G6-AVG=+092,-006,+033
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,120,110;SESC:125,120,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/020,017,012
    KFCST=1111 2111 2223 3222  27DAY-AP=013,012   27DAY-KP=3234 3321 1133 4332
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7352 (N19W55) pro-
       duced nearly all of today's occasional low level C-class sub-
       flare activity. The group showed hot plage during the day and an
       overall increase in size, although it also appears to be simp-
       lifying magnetically to a beta configuration. The other groups
       on the disk were quiet and stable. The first evidence of the
       return of old 7335 came late in the day with a single, simple
       h-type spot being reported at S18E88. The group was assigned
       Region number 7355.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7352 shows potential for producing an
       isolated M-class event sometime over the next three days.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days in re-
       sponse to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity should
       return to generally unsettled levels by the third day.

            Event probabilities 03 dec-05 dec

                             Class M    25/25/25
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 dec-05 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  A trend
       toward minor signal degradation is expected over the next 24 to 48
       hours due to enhanced geomagnetic activity.  Fading and multipathing
       is expected to increase over the night-sectors, with emphasis on high
       and polar latitude signal paths.  There continues to be a slight
       chance for brief SWF activity over the daylit paths due to minor solar
       flares.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7348  N11W55  341  0260 CAO  06  006 BETA
7350  S19W50  336  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7352  N19W55  341  0330 EAI  13  022 BETA
7353  S05W20  306  0000 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7354  S24W82  008  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7355  S18E86  200  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7349  S06W58  344                    PLAGE
7351  S15W49  335                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 DECEMBER TO 05 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7341 S16   163


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


