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	["5847" "Tue" "1" "December" "92" "23:05:10" "MST" "Cary Oler" "oler@rho.uleth.ca " nil "134" "Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 December" "^From:" nil nil "12"])
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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 December
Date: Tue, 1 Dec 92 23:05:10 MST

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                01 DECEMBER, 1992

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 DECEMBER, 1992
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 336, 12/01/92
10.7 FLUX=131.4  90-AVG=132        SSN=092      BKI=3235 4322  BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=B4.1     FLU1=4.0E+05  FLU10=1.8E+04  PKI=3344 3322  PAI=015
  BOU-DEV=029,017,029,085,057,034,019,017   DEV-AVG=035 NT     SWF=01:015
 XRAY-MAX= M1.5   @ 1803UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.5   @ 0427UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.7
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1635UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2000UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1610UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 2110UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55420NT @ 0527UT   BOUTF-MIN=55395NT @ 0947UT  BOUTF-AVG=55410NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+099NT@ 2023UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-021NT@ 1040UT  G7-AVG=+059,+035,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 2021UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-012NT@ 2357UT  G6-AVG=+077,-002,+036
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,125,120;SESC:130,125,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/015,025,020
    KFCST=0002 3000 1112 3111  27DAY-AP=027,013   27DAY-KP=2335 5524 3234 3321
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.5/1N@1803UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7352 (N20W41)
       produced most of today's flare activity including the only
       M-class event: an M1.5/1N at 1803Z. This group showed some
       development of new spots in the northwest leader portion and
       slight decay in the central spots. The Region has modest
       magnetic complexity as well and is classified as beta-gamma.
       The other groups on the disk were relatively stable and quiet.
       Surge activity was reported on east limb at S24, and is
       probably the first indications of the return of old Region
       7335.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-
       class event sometime over the next three days. Region 7352 is
       considered the most likely source for such an event.

            The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
       Quiet to unsettled levels started the period but a modest dis-
       turbance began around 09Z and kept the field at active to
       minor storm levels through the end of the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow and is expected to be
       unsettled to active for the second and third days. The
       increase is expected as a result of a favorably positioned
       coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 02 dec-04 dec

                             Class M    25/25/25
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 dec-04 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/20
                        Minor Storm           05/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/25/25
                        Minor Storm           05/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were slightly below normal from
       the northerly middle latitude paths to the polar latitude paths
       due to the mild geomagnetic disturbance noted above.
       Degradations were mostly in the form of enhanced fading and
       multipath activity.  Conditions improved somewhat by the end of
       the day.  Propagation should continue near-normal to slightly
       below-normal over the next 72 hours.  Mild depressions in
       propagation over the high and polar latitude paths may continue
       for the next 24 to 72 hours.  There is also a moderate risk for
       brief signal absorption on daylit paths due to minor solar
       flare activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7348  N13W42  342  0280 CHO  05  005 BETA
7350  S19W37  337  0070 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7352  N20W41  341  0280 EAI  12  028 BETA-GAMMA
7353  S03W04  304  0030 CAO  06  007 BETA
7354  S23W65  005  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7349  S06W45  345                    PLAGE
7351  S15W36  336                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 DECEMBER TO 04 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7335 S18   204


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 DECEMBER, 1992
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0755 0758 0758                          250
 1746 1803 1818 7352  N21W37 M1.5  1N


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 DECEMBER, 1992
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
01/B0757             A1353       N40E43   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
71   N25E02 N08W16 N13W28 N27W00  319  ISO   POS   011 10830A
72   S56E87 S56E87 S32E17 S16E44  252  ISO   NEG   062 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


