
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 June
Date: Sun, 21 Jun 92 23:28:17 MDT

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                  DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 JUNE, 1992

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 JUNE
--------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 173, 06/21/92
10.7 FLUX=117.4  90-AVG=140        SSN=080      BKI=4111 2223  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B2.4     FLU1=3.6E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4111 2323  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=056,009,009,008,011,019,010,027   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.0   @ 0217UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.1   @ 0149UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1250UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2350UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2355UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55259NT @ 1343UT   BOUTF-MIN=55228NT @ 1859UT  BOUTF-AVG=55243NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+123NT@ 2109UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2342UT  G7-AVG=+087,+044,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+143NT@ 2210UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-019NT@ 1541UT  G6-AVG=+104,+002,+032
 FLUXFCST=STD:118,115,111;SESC:120,115,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,012,015
    KFCST=2223 3322 2223 3322  27DAY-AP=012,007   27DAY-KP=2223 3432 1112 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     Solar activity became very low today.  Only small B-class subflares were
observed.  However, the frequency of B-class subflaring increased notably
over the last 24 hours in conjunction with renewed moderate growth in Region
7205 (N11W21).  The majority of flares were observed in this region.

     Region 7205 grew in all aspects today: spot count, plage brightness,
magnetic complexity, 10.7 cm emission strength, etc.  A small delta magnetic
configuration appears to have formed (or may be in the process of forming) in
the southeast quadrant of the region in an area of emerging flux.  Gradients
within this feature are not particularly strong at the present time, but
could increase if growth continues.  Fairly frequent B and/or C-class
subflare activity is possible in this region provided growth continues.

     Spot counts in Region 7208 (S26E02) more than doubled over the last 24
hours.  Recent observations show possible new flux emerging in the central
portion of this small spot group.  Continued growth of this feature could
yield a weak delta configuration in this region over the next 24 hours.

     Other activity of interest included an eruptive prominence seen on the
southwest limb near S35 to 0.47 solar radii at 06:49 UT.  This event was
accompanied by a minor class B5.8 x-ray enhancement, but lacked any notable
sweeps.

     Solar activity is expected to be mostly low.  C-class flare activity is
expected from Region 7205.  The background x-ray flux has been increasing
gradually as this region has continued to develop.  If growth continues, an
isolated M-class flare may also be observed.

     The geomagnetic field was generally quiet to unsettled over the last 24
hours.  A brief period of active conditions was observed early in the UT day
prior to 03:00 UT.  Thereafter, the field became generally quiet.  Conditions
are expected to be mostly unsettled to quiet with a gradual trend toward
unsettled to active levels by 23 or 24 June as an equatorial coronal hole
rotates into a geoeffective position.

     HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.  No significant
changes are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours, although a gradual trend
toward slightly greater signal instabilities may be observed on 23 or 24 June
in response to a well placed coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS (LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z)
---------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7197  S10W52  344  0060 CSO  03  004 BETA
7201  N24W25  317  0130 CSO  05  004 BETA
7205  N11W21  313  0080 DAI  05  020 BETA-GAMMA
7208  S26E02  290  0030 CRO  06  012 BETA
7194  S12W83  015                    PLAGE
7196  S02W83  015                    PLAGE
7200  S20W72  004                    PLAGE
7204  S25W42  334                    PLAGE
7206  S14W70  002                    PLAGE
7207  N15E27  265                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 JUNE TO 24 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7185 N13   200


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 JUNE
---------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 JUNE
-------------------------------------------------
           UT TIME                 OPTICAL          XRAY    RADIO
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
21/B0649              0826       S35W90   EPL    B5.8   86


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES (LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z)
----------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA  OBSN
              --  NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS --


**  End of Daily Report  **

